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At less than around 20 percentage points, the FPÖ faces its second largest accident to date.
According to Knittelfeld, the FPÖ lost 16.9 percentage points in the 2002 National Council election: it fell from 27 to 10.1 percent. It had to digest the biggest drop so far in 2013 in Carinthia, when it fell from 45 to 17 percent, or a whopping 28 percentage points.
These vibrations are not usually without consequences. After Knittelfeld there were several changes of president, directional discussions, in 2005 the division into the FPÖ and BZÖ.
He left in Carinthia Gerhard Dörfler Politics in 2013, until today the FPÖ no longer plays a significant role in state politics.
What can you expect at the FPÖ after October 11?
Interestingly, it shouldn’t Dominik nepp, the head of the FPÖ in Vienna, who has to draw the conclusions of the historical accident. Rather, the internal buzz of the FPÖ is boiling over because of the federal party. The pressure should reportedly be on Norbert hofer exercised to provide the presidency of the leader of the federal party. “If the FPÖ Vienna falls below ten percent, it triggers an earthquake,” reports an informant from the FPÖ. The pressure will come from the federal states, it is said.
The FPÖ countries live off the federal trend
That would be logical: the welfare and misfortune of the federal states largely depends on the federal tendency in the FPÖ. The federal government pulls the states up or sinks them into ruin. From the point of view of the FPÖ, after the Vienna elections it is about stabilizing and not falling apart any more. A single digit result in Vienna would trigger a red alert at the FPÖ. This is not unrealistic: pollsters Peter hajek raised for the FPÖ in its most recent survey only nine percent.
Strache would be “like gelse in the room”
The worst case is for the FPÖ, if it were in the single digits, and its former president Heinz-Christian Strache Creates entry into the municipal council. Not that Strache has the potential to split the FPÖ, he’s too weak for that. “But it would be like gel in the room – an annoying nuisance,” believes the FPÖ.
Strache would be a factor that would further contribute to the destruction of the FPÖ. Take Upper Austria, for example, where there will be elections a year from now: there the blue bubble is about to burst, the FPÖ currently has the all-time high of 30.4 percent in the country. In other words: FPÖ officials are threatened with job loss there. Go on, according to a FPÖ member: “Anyone who believes that the party did not qualify him well enough to keep his tenure then overflows to Strache to try his luck there.”
Kickl or a boy
Many believe that the party could be consolidated with a change of president. As a transitional candidate until a suitable youth is found Herbert Kickl negotiated, but this should now value the quality of life and not be torn apart by the stressful job of a party chairman.
