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Health Minister Rudi Anschober (Greens) again appealed to the population on Friday. Reducing contacts in free time is now the sticking point, confirms simulation researcher Popper.
4:06 pm, October 30, 2020
“Reduce your contacts from now on! A third fewer contacts halve the risk of infection. “And that is exactly what we urgently need now in light of the rapidly increasing number of infections.
The current package of measures that has been in force since Sunday, which stipulates the minimum distance in a legally binding way, massively expands the mandatory use of the MNS and drastically reduces unregulated events, would put a brake on it. Effect in just over a week reach. “We must and will have, however, to decide and anchor additional comprehensive and highly effective measures in the shortest possible time,” announced the head of the department.
The intensive care unit
The sudden increase in the number of infections is also causing reserves in intensive care units to melt massively. If this trend continues, the capacity limit would be reached in mid to late November. Therefore, massive additional measures will be needed in the coming days to be able to level again the current drastic increases.
The reduction of contacts in leisure time and mobility are now hot spots to curb the increasing number of corona infections, “without which you will not get along in the current situation,” the simulation researchers confirm. Niki Popper. The models show that really good results can be achieved with a reasonable reduction. Politicians now have to consider how far they want to go with the numbers and what to do next.
The measures did not work enough
In hindsight, it must be said that the measures taken in recent weeks not so worked They have, as expected, according to the scientist at the Technical University (TU) of Vienna. At the end of September they have one Minimal mobility reduction but this did not continue and was not decisive. And the Contact numbers in the networks obviously there would be not reduced accordingly.
Popper does not want to judge whether measures like Germany’s are the right path. “This is mostly a political discussion.” In any case, you have to do something, “I don’t know if this is called blocking, it is not very precisely defined either”.
At Model simulations But you can see how the different measures work. And it shows that a combination of measures and the restriction of contacts in free time (Popper: “In our model, unfortunately, this includes meetings, sports and hobbies with others, where we exchange ideas and what we like to do”) that can quickly control the infection process.
It’s all about your free time contacts
“Without this restriction of contacts in free time, it is very difficult in the current situation. The situation can only stabilize, but it will be difficult to contain a further strong increase,” said Popper. The question is how to find a mediocrity that allows a life as normal as possible, but still breaks the dynamics; now it is important to lower the numbers quickly and on short notice.
Measurements like Homeschooling or home office would also have a reducing influence on the infection rate, but would play a minor role as an individual measure relative to free time contacts in the model. It is the sum of all the measurements. Especially when schools are closed, you also have to ask yourself to what extent and where this is socially reasonable.
Doesn’t work without testing and tracking
In addition to reducing contact, Popper also believes this is crucial. Test, trace and isolation to maintain, even if it becomes disproportionately more difficult with a higher number of infections. The fact that the clearance rate has dropped drastically lately is a sign that testing and tracking no longer works well.
“There is the question of how we can achieve more resources for this in the future, because it is a mistake to think that after a certain point you no longer need them,” says the expert. Because if the back pressure is removed through testing, tracking and isolation, the rise accelerates even faster. That should have been one of the contributing effects of the past few days, which will have to be looked at more closely in the near future.
