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Should schools be closed in view of the high number of infections? Education Minister Heinz Faßmann wants to avoid this in all circumstances, as he fears the multiple negative effects, especially for the students themselves. But the decision ultimately is not the Minister of Education, but the Minister of Health, or the Federal Chancellor and the Crown. -Commission that will meet again tomorrow, Thursday.
Negative effects?
After WIFO first outlined the negative consequences of nationwide school closures in a position paper over the weekend, and on Monday Agenda Austria clearly warned of the consequences for students, the IHS, the Institute of Studies Advanced, did the same on Wednesday.
According to scientists, closing schools in the spring has long-term costs in the tens of billions. But not only that: “The shift from classroom teaching in schools to distance education has been shown to have massive negative effects on children’s acquisition of skills and knowledge. Younger children are as affected as children from disadvantaged homes, ”says the work KURIER has received.
The researchers also estimate that school closures “result in an average annual loss of earnings for all affected students of € 100-200 per month of school closure.” Depending on the specific assumptions, this results in a loss of more than two billion euros (0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP)) or more per month of school closure. This also includes higher unemployment costs, which also implies additional social costs.
Since parents are less available than workers in such a case, productivity is also reduced: “A cautious estimate assumes costs of lost productivity of a good billion euros (0.25% of GDP) per month of school closure. Closing a school even has an impact on the economic strength of the country.
Final warning from economic researchers: “High costs mean that closing daycare centers and schools should be the last resort in the fight against pandemics. The benefit has to be rated very high by virologists and epidemiologists to justify it. ”
But is a real blockade inevitable? “I can’t tell you now – Wednesday morning,” was heard today from a qualified mouth – from Clemens Martin Auer. Auer is a special representative in the Ministry of Health and one of the two chairmen of the traffic light commission.
The deciding factor for Auer is how strong the new infections continue to grow. But he didn’t want to be tied to an exact number.
School closings, as they are hotly debated at the moment, are also the “last ratio” for Auer. Here too, in the Ministry of Health, one is fully in line with the Ministry of Education.
Now everyone is eagerly awaiting the numbers to be reported next Thursday. Because some forecasting models assume that the expected effect of the lock should show around ten days after its introduction. With a continuous number of new infections per day of 5,000, the intensive occupancy rate would always remain just below the capacity limit of around 800 beds (with a constant age structure of those infected). Certainly, this situation would only be sustainable for the health system in the short term.
