“Flying blind”: massive problems with crown numbers hamper forecasts



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What is needed is a “vastly improved data situation” on the corona infection process. Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) made this appeal to politicians on Thursday. You belong to the forecasting team of the Ministry of Health and you are alarmed because there have been many data leaks in the last days and weeks.

The epidemiological notification system (EMS) is overloaded. Recently, authorities were unable to access him for hours. This creates delays and thousands of late registrations. Errors are also reported in the system. New infections are not assigned to the correct district or state.

Talk about the increase in the number of infections.

“If there are massive false reports and late reports from the authorities (sometimes for days), as is the case today, it becomes increasingly impossible to map the current infection process and that of the recent past, much less forecast numbers of cases futures, “wrote complexity researcher Peter Klimek and Stefan Thurner in their” Policy Brief “yesterday. That’s with decisions like “Close or not?” problematic. One is “exposed to infection, so to speak, while flying blind.”

With 9262 new infections nationwide, a record was recorded yesterday. It’s unclear how many of them were late registrations and how many were actually added within 24 hours.

A record was also recorded in Upper Austria with 2,554 new infections. According to the state crisis team, about 700 cases arrived in the previous days, which were reported late. The federal government is making an effort, but the system overload with millions of data, delays and errors make the work of state and district administrative authorities extremely difficult, says Carmen Breitwieser of the crisis team.

7000 Salmonellenfälle

Criticism from Carinthia and Vienna also came. According to Vienna City Councilor for Health Peter Hacker (SP), the Ages health agency has announced that the database is designed to document 7,000 salmonella cases per year. “And with this we want to document a Covid pandemic. That can’t work,” Hacker said.

Health Minister Rudi Anschober (Greens) commented Thursday morning: “The news this morning was that this was done and it should work 100 percent again.” There would be “late registrations” on Thursday. EMS is “very well developed” and, unlike in other countries, this system in Austria provides up-to-date data, according to Anschober: however, the database was previously only designed for a few thousand cases per year, now there are thousands cases per day.

In the afternoon, the Ministry of Health announced on request that the high server load did not pose a threat to the system and that the EMS was well equipped due to ongoing maintenance and expansion. The experts worked flat out to expand capabilities and avoid delays. The situation has already relaxed. However, signals to the contrary came from Upper Austria and Vienna. The problems persisted Thursday, he said.

Article of

Alexander Zens

Policy editor

Alexander Zens
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