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Vienna – With his trip, which was canceled on short notice due to a crown case in his ministry, Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg (ÖVP) wanted to back Greece and Cyprus in the gas dispute with Turkey on Thursday. Political scientist Cengiz Günay believes that Austria has so clearly supported Athens in the conflict, while Germany is trying to mediate, as “not very smart.”
In the current conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean, the EU is not behaving fairly with Turkey, the expert from the Austrian Institute for International Policy (OIP) told the APA. “In public debates, especially in Austria, it seems clear from the beginning that Turkey is wrong and Greece is right”, criticizes the expert, saying that the issue cannot be clarified so clearly. Everyone has “a bit of a right,” says Günay. The law of the sea is very complicated and does not give a clear answer here.
Günay: The Turkish position is also understandable
The Turkish position, “that if you have a coast that is longer than the land border between the United States and Mexico and only a small claim on the Mediterranean, something is wrong,” is understandable, believes the political scientist. Greece, which of course also pursues its own interests, is trying to turn its position into the position of the EU, with the support of France and Austria.
In Austria there is no differentiated view of Turkey, says Günay, and things often get mixed up. The Turkish regime of President Recep Tayyib Erdogan is absolutely worthy of criticism because it does not meet democratic standards, “but that does not mean that there cannot be legitimate security interests on the part of this country.” According to the expert, Austria’s partisanship fits “into the general panorama of a very clear anti-Turkish stance that has been observed for several years and which is now particularly strong with turquoise.”
According to the expert, the conflict in the eastern Mediterranean is not just about the exploitation of new gas deposits that have already been discovered and suspected, but about the division of areas of interest in general. “All the actors try to establish facts in this context,” says Günay. This development corresponds to the global trend of “moving away from multilateral institutions towards harsh geopolitics and power politics”.
Turkey is very isolated in the region in terms of foreign policy: relations not only with the West, but also with Israel and Egypt are bad. Thus, new alliances would be formed in the region, “where the point is to keep Türei as a regional actor as far away as possible,” Günay said. This is also the interest of France, for example, which supports the influential General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, while Ankara supports the UN-recognized unity government in Tripoli. In the gas dispute, France also has economic motivations, as energy company Total is heavily involved in natural gas exploration, according to the expert.
Expert does not believe in military conflicts
Günay does not believe that there is a military conflict between the NATO countries Greece and Turkey, because neither side is interested in escalation. “It’s more of a mutual saber rattling, which is pretty dangerous,” he says. Both parties wanted to break the posts for further negotiations.
But the question is who is eligible to mediate the conflict. The United States would be predestined to mediate between the two NATO partners, but is currently busy with itself, says Günay. “The German government, which currently holds the presidency of the EU Council, is making it very smart for it to act as a neutral mediator and that has been received very positively in some cases in Turkey.” that Erdogan could once again end the refugee pact with the EU.
Ultimately, however, both sides would have to make compromises: “Greece and its partners will not be able to prevent the integration of Turkey in any way and Turkey will not be able to avoid deviating from their maximum demands, some of which are absurd,” Günay said. . (THAN)
