Election polls: ÖVP accumulates long before the Vienna elections – Uncategorized

Two weeks before the Vienna city council election, the ÖVP is trying to keep expectations low. In a substantive discussion with club boss August Wöginger and general secretary Axel Melchior, opinion researcher Franz Sommer, who works for the party, presented the city’s turquoise as overrated. He sees the ÖVP in Vienna at 15 percent instead of the 20 percent shown by previous polls. However, he doesn’t believe in the absolute SPÖ that the ÖVP last put into space.

The ÖVP has spent weeks trying to curb the expectations of the October 11 elections that have aroused good polls. In late August, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz declared “more than 15 percent” as an electoral target. Sommer is now referring to a survey commissioned by the ÖVP-related “Demox Research” institute, which the Vienna ÖVP currently considers between 15 and 16 percent. After its negative record in 2015 (9.24 percent), the ÖVP “will obviously gain several percentage points,” Sommer said. But the 20 percent and more that is shown in other polls would “greatly surprise” him: “I think more in the direction of 15 percent than in the direction of 20 percent.”

Sommer expects the Greens to win moderately compared to the result of the 2015 Vienna election (11.84 to 14 percent). The fact that the Vienna Greens are worse in the municipal council election than in Vienna’s result of the National Council election (20.69 percent) also has to do with the strength of the Vienna SPÖ: the appeal of the SPÖ city is “much larger than that of the federal SPÖ”. The ÖVP opinion researcher also sees NEOS seven percent below the result of the National Council election (9.86). Go to the FPÖ and Team Strache in the area of ​​the polls published so far: the blue ones between ten and twelve percent, Strache around five.

What is certain, however, is the “big winner” with SPÖ Vienna, which Sommer currently estimates at 43 to 44 percent. “It will clearly surpass the good result of 2015 (39.59 percent, note).” Sommer considers it unlikely that the SPÖ could achieve an absolute majority in the term that the ÖVP had last warned: “That would be a surprise, but given the data, it would not be obvious.”

At the federal level, Sommer sees the ÖVP still at light heights. The decline in voters in the leadership of the FPÖ after the election of the National Council feared by the ÖVP had not yet occurred, he said. Unlike 2002, these are not loan votes in the classic sense: “Now a segment of the electorate has been integrated. Therefore, the ÖVP in the federal government will remain in the “35 to 40 percent corridor” for years to come.

By the way, according to the survey, the population’s expectations about the crisis of the crown, also asked in mid-September, are grim. Based on this, 63 percent assume that the peak of the pandemic is yet to come. Therefore, measures to contain the virus are rejected by a third of those surveyed. Too quick a relaxation of measures by the government is only attributed to eleven percent for the increase in new infections, according to the survey presented by the ÖVP. Rather, the cause is mainly seen in people returning from vacation (37 percent) and young people partying (32 percent).