Drosten: That’s why the corona numbers are now exploding – Coronavirus –

In Vorarlberg and Austria, crown numbers have increased enormously recently.

The situation is particularly dramatic in Spain, France, Israel and the Czech Republic. German virologist Christian Drosten offers a possible explanation for the increase in many places.

According to the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, it is unlikely that a prognosis can be made about the limit up to which the number of new corona infections can still be controlled and when the massive spread will begin. “It’s very difficult to assess when that will happen,” he said on his NDR podcast. It is clear that there could be a sudden effect, a threshold effect.

But why are the crown numbers rising again now, after months of stability? This can be explained by the phenomenon of the so-called percolation. Drosten explained the physical effect using the example of a coffee filter filled in a jug: if you add water drop by drop, nothing happens for a long time and then all of a sudden the water leaks into the jug.

The reason is that a continuous connection of water-filled cavities must first be created in the coffee powder. The phenomenon of percolation can also be transferred to the reality of corona propagation. Here too there could be a sudden effect, a threshold effect.

The basis is population groups, such as families or shared apartments, that are weakly connected to each other. By connecting groups across the country, you create a broadcast network. However, there are many influencing factors, such as average cluster size, population mobility, and the extent of social contacts. They influenced events in very different ways from country to country. “And that is why I cannot say now: here is the threshold.”

“We have to honestly admit that we don’t know exactly where the virus is,” says Drosten. What is clear, however, is that the situation could spiral out of control. “There is a possibility that we will deceive ourselves if we do so.” tell us: Yes, that is going very well at the moment, so let’s continue as before. ”

The status of the crown can be controlled as long as the groups that occur can be well isolated and the members of the group remain with each other. With more and more clumps undiscovered, because people don’t notice or keep quiet about their infection, the percolation effect could exist.

Then the numbers rose steeply for no apparent reason. “I have the feeling that this is what we are seeing in France right now.”