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Early mobile phone movement data shows a clear effect of “hard” versus “soft” blocking, but not as clear as in spring.
Compared to the “soft” lockdown on November 3, the “hard” variant has caused a significant decrease in mobility in Austria since Tuesday. However, this effect is not close to that of the spring, as the first mobile phone movement data is shown until Wednesday. Due to the decline in mobility, there are closures in shops and schools, however, there are also signs of corona fatigue, according to experts from the telecommunications company A1 and the company Invenium.
Anonymous analyzes of average distances traveled in Austria are created by Invenium, a spin-off company of the Technical University (TU) Graz, on the basis of information on which mobile phones use the SIM card to mark which mobile phone antennas along throughout the day. Since the beginning of the crown crisis, companies have been providing information to authorities, including the Ministry of Health.
In general, 73% are “mobile people”.
The early days of the federal government’s strict new course of action actually show a reduction in the proportion of people who have a range of motion of more than a kilometer per day, explained Mario Mayerthaler of A1 and Michael Cik of Invenium on Friday. This group is considered “mobile people” in the analysis. In the normal long-term average, about 73 percent are this mobile. At the beginning of the first lockdown in mid-March, this value fell to around 45 percent or less. The then gradual remobilization peaked in the summer and approached the normal value. In October, this image was similar.
The beginning of the “soft lockdown” brought a decrease to 63 percent for this mobility group. Dramatic restrictions, for example with the suspension of compulsory schooling in the federal capital after the terrorist attack in the center of Vienna the night before, were also partly responsible for this problem. Then this mobility group grew back slightly to around two-thirds.
On Tuesday (November 17), the first day of the hard lockdown, it was now around 57 percent, on Wednesday it showed a similar value. “So you can see that it works, of course not in the same dimension as in the first lockdown,” said Cik, who assumes that the values will remain around this level for the next few weeks. You can see that in the various crash scenarios, the habits change quite steadily.
Strong effects especially in city centers
There were on average more than 80 percent fewer people on the Mariahilfer Strasse in Vienna on Tuesday than on a normal Tuesday in November 2019. In March, however, the number of pedestrians was even lower. However, the reduction is also extremely visible in “‘Lockdown 2′”, says Cik. This also applies to a somewhat weaker shape in the center of Innsbruck. The closure of much of the retail trade will have strong effects, especially in urban centers. Overall, school closings and increased home offices also have a significant impact.
Mayerthaler emphasized that data from the Los Angeles and New York city centers have recently shown significant declines. However, it is interesting that there is no such lockdown in the US The fact that this does not happen on its own in this country, so to speak, could perhaps be seen as an indication of a certain crisis fatigue in Austria. However, the mobility figures do not allow for motivational research, the experts emphasized.
There has also been a sharp drop in public transportation since the beginning of the week, Cik said. At less than 60 to 70 percent compared to the pre-crisis level, according to the transport researcher, it is well above the fall in spring (minus 90 percent).
(WHAT)
