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1.9 million: According to a new study, this is the number of people who should die from Corona by the end of the year. A “deadly December” is feared.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine predicts that in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly 770,000 human lives will be saved worldwide by January 1 “Through proven means like masks and measures like spatial distancing. it could become.” At the same time, however, the cumulative deaths expected for January 1 are 2.8 million.
That means an increase of around 1.9 million from now until the end of the year. Deaths in December could rise as high as 30,000 a day, he said. “These early global predictions are discouraging, but they also contain a roadmap for addressing COVID-19 that both governments and individuals can follow,” said IHME Director Christopher Murray. “We are facing a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States.”
The science is clear and the evidence is irrefutable: “The use of masks, avoiding larger groups and social distancing are essential to prevent the spread of the virus.” The institute modeled three scenarios for its forecast. The “worst case scenario” would be if the number of mask wearers stayed the same and governments relaxed social distancing further, leading to 4.0 million deaths by the end of the year.
“We are facing a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States.”
An “ideal case” of 2.0 million deaths in total would result if masks are used almost universally and each government prescribes social distancing as soon as the respective national death rate exceeds eight per million inhabitants per day. The “expected” scenario, in turn, is that the use of individual masks and other relief measures would remain unchanged, causing around 2.8 million deaths. “The difference between the ‘ideal’ scenario and the ‘expected’ one in December is that 750,000 lives are saved or 30,000 deaths occur daily.”
In any case, both scenarios would represent a significant increase over the current total of deaths, which is estimated at almost 910,000 worldwide. “The expected deterioration in the situation is due in part to a likely seasonal increase in COVID-19 cases in the northern hemisphere,” he said. To date, COVID-19 follows seasonal patterns that are also seen in relation to the occurrence of pneumonia. If this correlation continues, the northern countries would expect more cases in the late autumn and winter months.
“People in the Northern Hemisphere need to be more vigilant as winter approaches and coronavirus, such as pneumonia, is more common in cold climates,” Murray said. “When you look at the staggering estimates of COVID-19, these numbers can be overwhelming. The death toll exceeds the combined capacity of the world’s 50 largest stadiums, a sobering picture when you consider how many people lost their lives and their livelihoods. . to have.”
“We all need to learn from those nations where the virus has been contained …”
The scenarios prepared by the IHME indicated that the nations with the highest number of deaths in relation to their population would be the United States Virgin Islands, the Netherlands and Spain. This scenario predicts the following figures for the different WHO regions for January 1: 959,685 deaths in the American continent, 667,811 in the Europe region, 79,583 in the Africa region, 168,711 in the Eastern Mediterranean, 738,427 in the region Southeast Asia and 191,598 in the Western Pacific Region.
“We must all learn from those nations where the virus has been contained or where a second wave of infections has emerged and swift action has been taken to prevent loss of life,” Murray said. He also warned against the “herd immunity” strategy, which aims to make large populations immune to the virus through infection and recovery. The “worst case scenario” occurs when governments allow the virus to spread to virtually the entire population, resulting in significant loss of life.
“This first global forecast is intended to highlight the issue of so-called herd immunity, as this strategy fundamentally ignores science and ethics and allows millions of preventable deaths,” Murray said. “That would be, to put it simply, an inhuman approach.” At worst, the highest death rates would be found in the Netherlands, Spain, the US Virgin Islands, Japan, Sweden, Romania, Israel, Moldova, the United States of America, and Montenegro.
In the most likely scenario in the US Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Peru, San Marino, Sweden, the United States of America, Ecuador and France. And “ideally” in the US Virgin Islands, Spain, Peru, San Marino, Kazakhstan, Ecuador, Belgium, Panama, Mexico and Colombia.
