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Simulation expert Niki Popper fears a “potentially difficult” fall situation.
Looking at the Covid-19 epidemic, simulation researcher Niki Popper from the Technical University of Vienna expects a “potentially difficult spread situation” in the fall. The current “dynamics among young people” could also lead, with some delay, to the groups most at risk once again facing the virus more strongly. When it comes to containment, there is still room for improvement, Popper told the APA.
In fact, in the summer, the proportion of Covid-19 cases shifted significantly towards the 15-30 age group: By mid-August, Popper and his team’s evaluations of EMS data show that around the half of the The number of cases belonging to this age segment increases continuously throughout the month. As a reminder, at the beginning of the epidemic, the focus was on people aged 45-60 and 60-75.
The pressure is higher
The TU Wien model forecasts around the March lockdown would have shown relatively early that the capacities of the health system would be sufficient. Based on the experience of recent months, the simulation researcher does not see any problematic effect on the health system, especially in hospitalizations, “because the therapy is much more effective than in spring.”
However, it is essential to see the spread: “The pressure is already higher than it was then. One of the reasons for this is that this time we did not start with zero or two cases, but now we have a lot of herds spread out and probably more numbers. of unreported cases “. Popper said. According to the models, the fact that the number of cases is not currently increasing is probably due to the structure of the clusters, the “back pressure” that the measures still exert and the current sufficient isolation of positive cases.
If the indoor activities with the greatest influx of public began again in autumn and winter tourism and the flu season began with the drop in temperatures, the structures in the distribution networks would change and the measures taken would have a weaker effect. At the same time, the effort of the test and follow-up strategy (TTI strategy) increases rapidly as the number of cases increases and is still unlikely to work well enough for this case.
Testing takes too long
Based on current data, this appears to be very different from region to region. “Testing takes too long, it’s still unclear who is being tested and why, and based on the numbers available, contact tracking is likely to be very different in the federal states,” says Popper, who currently has “Many mini epidemics” see “what we could actually also have under control. The instruments are there, only the interaction” just doesn’t work enough.
In the calculations of Popper’s new model, under worsening conditions, there is a notable increase around the third week of September. Popper: “So everyone says the schools are to blame”, although the reasons are more complex. The researcher does not expect an actual second wave, but rather a “meander” that increases rapidly again in the models after a certain point in time. “In the simulations, the increase depends directly on the interaction between the measures taken to reduce contact, distance and hygiene, as well as the TTI strategy. If one factor increases as a result of development, you have to work on the other”, said the expert.
The mechanisms behind the epidemic are now much better understood than they were in the spring. If the proportion of Covid-19 among relatively mobile and often asymptomatically infected young people aged 15-30 is higher, it is also to be expected that today’s “well-protected vulnerable groups” will come into greater contact with the pathogen again. By then, at the latest, the development will also be reflected in a multiplication of people needing hospitalization or intensive treatment, Popper said. However, since the proportion of severe cases due to improved therapies is also likely to be lower in these groups, the health system can treat it longer than in spring, even if one cannot feel safe.
Superspreader
So that it does not go that far and the “base pressure” remains manageable, the implementation of the TTI strategy should also be more efficient to be able to open as much as possible in the fall. Popper points to a positive property of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which, according to calculations, is widely distributed through “super-spreaders.” If you get the super spreaders from contact nets, you can control the spread much better than with other diseases, the researcher emphasized.
In schools, for example, it is important to avoid class confusion; In winter tourism, smart visitor control concepts are required and indoor après-ski is not required. “In the end, however, detection and an effective strategy to disrupt propagation networks are crucial.”
Popper sees the Corona traffic light planned by the Ministry of Health as an “important step.” But much will depend on how politicians handle the recommendations of the stoplight commission. Since here, unlike the procedure in Germany, many indicators such as test numbers, cluster status or hospital resources are taken into account and made transparent, the construction promises many positive things because it can react in a much more way differentiated to the dynamics of propagation. He hopes that such systems will avoid future “unspecific and overly broad reactions” and instead take meaningful regional action.
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