Covid-19: Simulation Researcher Popper Believes in Easy Relaxation – Coronavirus Vienna

While the restriction on the number of people at events slightly reduces Austrians’ networks of contact again, the Covid-19 numbers continue to rise to a higher level. Simulation researcher Niki Popper believes in the APA conversation that there will be a slight relaxation when the important factors “contact reduction” and “contact tracking” play together and at the same time warns of the moment when tracking no longer follows. .

“Testing, tracing and isolation should follow a general strategy. With our virtual population (researchers simulate the behavior of Austrians in a simulation; note), we see that the faster the trace, the longer the system remains stable. “Said the scientist from the Technical University (TU) of Vienna:” A reduction in mobility and a reduction in leisure clusters have a positive effect on the model, and we see these effects in reality with a time lag. “

Popper’s team is currently working, among other things, on how the measures currently in place to contain the epidemic are already affecting and reproducing the connection with contact tracking. The mobility data in Austria from last week is currently being incorporated into the models. “This shows that we already have a certain reduction in contact.”

On the one hand, this is due to reduced mobility compared to summer – compared to the peak of travel activity during the holiday season, this has again dropped by around 20 percent, depending on size . Additionally, there are now again fewer people at events as part of the recommendation to limit meetings to just ten people and continued adherence to hygiene measures.

All of this currently reduces network activity in the model with assumed interpersonal contacts in it by around 20 to 30 percent, although this is very different for different population groups. “That has an effect. And that’s the good news, so to speak,” said Popper, who expects the number of cases to remain stable for the next several weeks or decrease somewhat. The challenge here: In contrast to the pre-lock spring, strong back pressure is already being exerted to expand. “So the interplay between contact reduction, hygiene and function testing, tracing and isolation should work.”

Experts have been insisting on this since early summer. In this context, at least recently, more resources have been released in many regions. If this does not happen and a higher percentage of infected people run, so to speak, unaffected by quarantine measures for a long time without symptoms or very mild, but with a high viral load from daily and night life, the curve of drop in the model increases rapidly from a certain point. This has to do with the size of the “mini-networks” and the intensity of the connections between them, according to the researcher.

In the models, Popper’s research group makes optimistic assumptions that about 70 percent of contacts are correctly identified in the course of tracking and quickly isolate themselves or stay home of their own free will. As in reality, there are differences in the model between domestic, work or leisure contacts. The success rate is different here.

However, if you reduce this value to around 40 percent overall, the expansion in the simulation proceeds much faster. Popper: “The absolute numbers are not that important and safe to discuss here. What is decisive, however, is that we can see in the groups in the model how sensitively the system reacts here.” To keep this as low as possible, an even better coordinated “national blanket strategy” would be needed for rapid testing and rapid reaction to positive results: “Rapid reaction also reduces the number of people in the model who are quarantined. , and that’s what Autumn will be very important. “

This also applies to suspected cases in schools, which should be kept as open as possible according to the taste of parents and politicians. With quick action, this can probably be guaranteed, based on Popper’s assessment. At the universities themselves, which have now started again in the winter semester, broadcasts can probably be well contained. Many measures have been implemented here. Another question is what students in university towns do in their free time.

At the moment, many citizens have tested themselves on their own or, for example, before going on a trip, in addition to extensive test programs, for example in the restaurant or hospitality sector, which is sometimes underused. The best possible coordination, general coverage, and good documentation would be important to the investigation. You don’t know exactly how many people are being tested and for what reasons. There is often little or only delay in reporting how many tests are negative and thus how large the proportion of positives is on all tests, which is important for the overall assessment of the situation and prognoses, he emphasized. Popper.

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