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Towards the end of the month, however, another important influencing factor becomes visible for the first time, namely, how the moderate easing from December 7 to December 23 will affect it. So you can see which way it is going.
I expect a few hundred cases
Depending on the dynamics that have developed up to that point, the model stabilizes at an overall low around the holidays and the turn of the year. If all goes well, it would be in the range of a few hundred new cases per day. Then you can see how the dynamics unfolded from mid-December. Even a slight growth to a higher level would cause the curve to point up again very quickly. Popper: “In this sense, we will take a closer look.”
In any case, the number of cases until mid-January will be decisive for the later course of winter, “because then we will begin to see how Christmas and the strategy will work,” said the researcher. The effectiveness of the current package of measures is difficult to predict. At the moment, participation also appears to differ regionally. If the low is lower overall in January, the increase in the number of cases would also be easier to suppress. But if everything were to work again after the Christmas holidays, the models would show a rapid increase again.
Required concept
Therefore, no later than January, it must be clearly defined from what developments and what measures will be used to counter this. Popper: “Will we wait again for 7,000 or 8,000 new cases a day? What is the value that we accept socially?” What is needed here is a clear line in society and in politics on when and how to react. Then you can also adapt the models.
In mid-January, one knows in the model calculations “what is happening, so to speak, and if we have a general system with which you can control what is happening.” That clearly stands and falls with contact tracking that works at the regional level. New cases arriving should not exceed actual tracking capabilities, Popper emphasized: “For example, we would be very interested in the value up to which ‘test, trace, isolate’ works (TTI, note). We need data for this capabilities, process and speed “, because then the prognostic research alarm could be raised in time to counteract the feared sharp increase in the collapse of the TTI system.” There should be transparency here, “Popper emphasized.
