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METERhen 19,990 new infections were recorded, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported a new record Thursday, but the increase in the number of cases appears to have stabilized somewhat. Both the rate of new infections nationwide and the R-values indicate that a trend reversal could be imminent. The RKI reported the highest value since the start of the pandemic last Saturday with 19,059 cases.
In late September, Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) set a scenario whereby there could be 19,200 new infections per day at Christmas; this value has already been exceeded seven weeks earlier. It was the fifth highest reported on a Thursday in a row. On Thursday, a week ago, the number was 16,774, two weeks ago (October 22) 11,287, three weeks ago (October 15) 6638, which were highest for Germany. Four weeks ago (October 8), the number of new infections had reached 4,058, a new high since April, that is, for the second wave of infections.
The number of views, or R-value for short, was 0.81 in Germany according to the RKI situation report on Wednesday night. This means that ten infected people infect eight other people on average. If the value is less than 1 for a longer period of time, the infection rate decreases.
The R value represents the infection rate approximately one and a half weeks earlier. Also, the RKI gives a seven-day R call, which shows what happened 8 to 16 days ago. This value refers to a longer period of time and is therefore less subject to daily fluctuations. According to RKI estimates, Wednesday was 0.92, also slightly below 1.
The day before, the two R values were below 1 and slightly above the previous days. According to the RKI, it is not yet possible to say whether the slight decrease in R values is a stable trend or a fluctuation. To get back into a controllable situation, the number of plays must be well below 1 for a long time, 0.7 or even less. Even then, it will be weeks before it is back in the 2,000 new infections per day range, he said.
Data from the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) Corona Monitor had shown that respondents were more cautious last week than two weeks earlier. According to the RKI, it will take two to three weeks until the effect of the partial closure, which has been in effect since Monday, with the closure of several facilities in November, shows the number of infections by the range from contagion to symptoms, tests and registration .
The increase is less
The number of new infections recorded per 100,000 inhabitants over seven days further suggests that the infection process is gathering momentum. However, the increase in incidence compared to the previous day’s value was less than in the last two weeks. On Thursday the value was 126.8 (as of November 5 at 00:00) and, therefore, only slightly higher than the previous day (125.8), as announced by the RKI. Four weeks ago (October 8) it was only 20.2.
A high incidence of 7 days indicates that many people have contracted the virus. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) has set the goal of returning to a region of 50 infections in seven days per 100,000 inhabitants. Then, health authorities could trace the contacts of infected people.
According to the RKI, the proportion of older people among Covid 19 cases has increased again since the beginning of September. You are at higher risk of getting seriously ill. The number of Covid-19 cases treated in intensive care has almost tripled in the last two weeks from 943 patients (October 21) to 2546 patients (November 4). According to data from the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), the previous peak was 2,933 on April 18.
Even if the trend were to reverse, the burden on clinics would initially continue to increase: according to experts, it takes an average of ten days before patients with symptoms have to be transferred to the intensive care unit. Ventilated patients usually stay there for several weeks, deaths only occur later. Therefore, the number of new infections only has a delayed effect on the number of deaths.
According to the RKI, a total of 597,583 people in Germany have been infected with Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the pandemic (until November 5, 00:00). The number of deaths related to the virus rose 118 through Thursday to a total of 10,930. The RKI estimates that around 391,600 people have recovered.
