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He is the head of the public health department of AGES (Agency for Health and Food Safety) and, together with his team, analyzes daily the number of corona cases throughout Austria. In Ö3 breakfasts with me Professor Franz Allerberger presented the new findings on the corona virus on Sunday.
“More harmless than previously thought”
“It is a much more harmless disease than we feared ten months ago, when we still believed that the mortality rate was 30 percent of those infected”: In conversation with Ö3Moderator Claudia Stöckl confirmed the new Stanford University Allerberger study, which shows a death rate from corona of 0.23 percent. Allerberger to this Ö3: “The value fits our data perfectly.”
Concern for the elderly
However, continues the Salzburg resident, even if only seven percent of intensive care beds in Austrian hospitals are currently occupied, it should be noted: “90 percent of Austrians are fully responsive, and the proportion of people over 65 should not be underestimated because there is The percentage of mortality is significantly higher than that of seasonal flu. “
“Politicians will be under pressure”
The Corona expert is worried about winter: “We have to be careful not to experience our blue miracle.” Allerberger assumes that “the number of cases will double or increase even more. Once we have 4,000 or 5,000 new infections per day, we have to wait for medical care to find bottlenecks, that we will see deaths in nursing homes and then, the politicians are under massive pressure. But, in principle, we cannot prevent individual deaths, we can only postpone the process a bit, ‘flatten the curve’, as it’s called. “
Infections peak in December / January
The infectologist sees the real peak of Covid infections “in December or January”, and says about the current discussion on the tightening of government measures: “It is not the case that all measures are 100 percent proven to have the correct effect Bringing a curfew is a good example. Many say it is a mistake because people later celebrate in private. But it is one of many measures. It indicates that we just have to reduce social contacts. It is about raising awareness about the problem underline. “
“Everyone will get the virus”
The initial WHO announcements that the virus could be eradicated are outdated to the infectologist: “You have to cross that out, the virus will stay with us. The WHO would do well to leave this statement. Each of us will be sooner or later” unless he dies first. There will be no easy solution “
“Vaccine in July at the earliest”
Allerberger predicts a vaccine for July 2021 at the earliest, and also says: “I would bet my last shirt that no medication will arrive because you can count virus medications on one side. So belief dies in the end If that doesn’t happen We will have to live with Corona for months, if not a year or two. “
“Possibility of herd immunity”
Franz Allerberger also has good news. He does not consider a second blockade necessary under any circumstances: “I think the same goal can be achieved with softer measures.” According to the epidemiologist, the new findings on herd immunity are also cause for hope: “Originally we thought we needed a contamination of 70 to 80 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity, so that everything stops by itself.
Values for Ischgl, Bergamo or Wuhan, for example, show that a 42 percent infection rate could mean that people are no longer infecting each other. The investigation in this regard is ongoing; if true, it would lead to relaxation earlier than we originally calculated. “
