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Is Donald Trump suffering a total loss of reality or is he a political genius who will finally surprise all critics? The refusal of the current president of the United States to admit his electoral defeat continues to keep the United States in suspense.
Trump wants to prevent the victory of Democrat Joe Biden with lawsuits and demands for recount, although he has only a slim chance of success. So pessimists refer to other dark scenarios of how Trump might stay in power, but Biden doesn’t really have to fear any.
A FINISH FOR RE-ELECTION?
Some of his supporters and critics explain Trump’s behavior with a year: 2024. They speculate that he will reluctantly leave the White House on January 20, but only to prepare for a renewed presidential candidacy in 2024. The Republican would then be 78 years old, so Old like Biden when he took office on January 20 next year.
This thesis is based, among other things, on the fact that Trump is currently vigorously soliciting donations under the pretext of incurring legal costs. With this money, part of which will flow into a newly founded structure, it could also finance future political ambitions. A renewed candidacy in 2024 would be legally possible, but politically highly unusual. Either way, one thing is clear: Trump received more than 72 million votes in the Nov. 3 election and should therefore continue to play a significant role with Republicans going forward.
THE STATE OF THE RACE
“Peaceful transfers of power require political will. In the end, the people on one side have to step back from the abyss.” Historian Daniel Larsen wrote these words in an article for the “New York Times” a few days before the fear came true and Trump made it clear that he did not intend to admit defeat. But the figures (in the article below) are clear: according to US media forecasts, Biden has secured 306 votes from the electorate. That’s what Trump got in 2016, and significantly more than the required majority of 270 votes. Trump spoke of a “landslide victory” four years ago. Now there are only 232 voters.
HOPE IN COURTS
Lawsuits brought by Trump, Republicans and conservative groups after the elections in several US states have been unsuccessful so far. This includes alleged allegations of fraud, the validity of certain mail-in ballots and a delay in certifying the results. None of the demands are likely to influence the outcome of elections in a US state, much less jeopardize Biden’s electoral victory as a whole. The Conservatives were exposed by a judge in Michigan on Friday, as were several lawsuits in Pennsylvania. Trump’s attorneys backed out of a lawsuit in Arizona. A major Pennsylvania law firm went overboard.
LEGAL “THEATER”
Biden’s team classifies the lawsuits as “theater.” Trump, in turn, has spoken several times about the fact that the US Supreme Court could ultimately decide the election. Six of the nine justices are considered conservative, three of them nominated by Trump himself. Independent lawyers consider it almost impossible, also in view of Biden’s leadership, for the court to annul the election result due to individual lawsuits.
Trump’s Republicans are using ongoing processes to continue to portray Biden’s election victory as unsafe. In light of the demands, the de facto elected government has so far denied Biden the support provided by law for a transfer of office (“transition”). Therefore, the procedures give Trump time he can use to plan his next steps. Trump’s critics accuse him of using his tactics to undermine confidence in the integrity of the elections and democracy in general.
VOTE COUNT
The recounts requested by Trump shouldn’t fundamentally change the outcome. In the US state of Wisconsin, Biden is ahead of Trump with around 20,000 votes; in Georgia around 14,000 votes. In the past, the results of the counts have only changed minimally. Four years ago in Wisconsin, for example, all votes were counted again: Trump increased his lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 131 votes.
HOW IS THE MILITARY GOING BEYOND?
Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other Pentagon executives after the election. However, that has more to do with his desire to settle outstanding bills than with sinister plans to use the military to maintain power. The legal hurdles to deploying the military at home are high. Furthermore, the leadership of the armed forces has stated that the military will not take action even if the outcome of the elections is controversial.
That was emphasized again this week by Trump’s appointed chief of staff Mark Milley a year ago. “We do not take an oath to a king or a queen, a tyrant or a dictator. We do not take an oath to an individual,” Milley said. “We take an oath on the constitution.”
THE OTHER HOURS
US states must certify their final election results by December 8 and report them to Washington. On December 14, the 538 electorate will vote to elect the president and his deputy. The result of the vote will be read in Congress on January 6, when there will be legal certainty. On January 20, the new president will take office in Washington.
LIKELY DISASTER SCENARIOS
In theory, something could go wrong with the legalization of the results and the appointment of the electorate in the states. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example, Biden won the election, but Republicans control the local parliament there. Parliamentarians could declare Trump the winner of the election by certifying the results, for example under the pretext of electoral fraud. The governor, who is democratic in both cases, has not yet signed the result. He could send another result to Washington, then chaos would be programmed. An equally controversial election could only be resolved in 1877 through a political exchange.
Such a scenario is not impossible, but highly unlikely: Republican MPs would have to oppose the will of the majority of voters in their state, especially since Biden also won the most votes in the entire country. In addition, the maneuver would have to be sustained on the court.
THE ROLE OF THE ELECTORS
There could also be surprises in terms of voting behavior by the electorate. They must stick to the electoral results of their states; regulations and threats of punishment exist in some places, but not everywhere. So the choice could be influenced by defectors. Biden’s advantage is now so great that even some deviants wouldn’t mind. According to Parliament, there have been defectors in nine elections so far. But this has never changed the outcome of the elections.
If the electoral college could not elect a president, that role would fall to the House of Representatives. There everything would then be based on the delegations of the states, of which Trump’s Republicans have a majority. In view of most of Biden, that game of thought is also extremely unlikely.
The only plausible scenario sounds like this: Biden will be sworn in on January 20 in front of the Capitol and will move into the White House that afternoon.
