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Forget the economic forecast. They only happen if the government refines its crisis management and the people refine their behavior.
Will the economy grow two percent, four percent, or not at all in the next year? Economic researchers released their forecasts on Friday. And you can immediately forget about the detailed published figures. Econometric prediction models are based on the interaction of a myriad of assumptions that they feed on. They work very well in times of continuous development. And, as they have often shown, miserable in times of great upheaval.
Who, for example, is supposed to believe that the unemployment rate will drop, even slightly, in the next year, since no one doubts that the wave of bankruptcies postponed this year by state intervention will only really begin after the expiration of the crown aid?
