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The EU is preparing for a final breakdown of negotiations with London on the Brexit trade pact. Since all discussions have so far been unsuccessful, such a scenario is becoming more and more likely. The objective is to alleviate the chaos that is feared in this case from the New Year. According to the EU Commission, among other things, it is about maintaining air and road traffic, in addition to fishing.
“Negotiations are still ongoing, but the end of the transition period is near,” Commission Head Ursula von der Leyen said on Twitter. Before that, a dinner with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had ended without success. There is no guarantee of last-minute success, von der Leyen said. “We have to be prepared, also for the fact that no contract will go into effect on January 1.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel also assured Wednesday that they are well prepared for the failure of the talks. She did not give any details.
Certificates are still valid
Brussels’ emergency measures include a proposal to maintain certain air connections between the UK and the EU for six months, all based on reciprocity with the UK. There should also be a transitional rule for the recognition of aircraft safety certificates, so that they do not have to be deregistered from the EU. There should be a similar regulation to be able to continue the traffic of goods and passengers for six months.
For the still unresolved fishing issue, the EU Commission proposes a legal framework that should apply until December 31, 2021, or until a fisheries agreement with Great Britain is finally reached. This agreement is intended to regulate the access of British trawlers to EU waters and vice versa. The Commission will work closely with the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers to bring the regulations into force before 1 January 2021.
On the British side it is also emphasized that they have meticulously prepared for a no-deal Brexit and that they can live with that scenario. That is important if only to be able to stand firm in the negotiations. British pharmaceutical oversight, for example, is convinced that in the event of a hard Brexit, the supply of drugs and vaccines can be guaranteed.
British Brexit negotiator David Frost has urged businessmen to prepare for a “no deal”. British businessmen received briefing material: London expects that, in the worst case, up to 7,000 trucks could get stuck in the south of England due to controls in the English Channel from 1 January 2021.
Three times more expensive than Covid
Trade between the EU countries and Great Britain would be greatly affected in the event of a hard Brexit, and high tariffs would have to be imposed on each other in various sectors: 37.5 percent for dairy, 11.5 percent for clothing, 22 percent for delivery vehicles and trucks. ten percent for automobiles.
According to a study by the renowned research center “The United Kingdom in a Changing Europe”, an exit without a deal could be almost three times more expensive for the British economy in the long term than the consequences of the corona pandemic.
