[ad_1]
The crown crisis, which includes a second lockdown and traditional higher winter unemployment, for example in construction, is causing unemployment figures to continue to rise. IHS and Wifo principals are warning politicians not to take crown-related school closings lightly.
Labor Minister Christine Aschbacher (ÖVP) expects around 500,000 unemployed by the end of the year. In October, around 424,000 people in Austria were out of work. Crisis-related unemployment in November and December will rise from 20,000 to 90,000 compared to the end of October, Aschbacher said in Vienna on Monday.
The Labor Minister discussed the current labor market situation with IHS director Martin Kocher and Wifo boss Christoph Badelt on Monday morning. The economic research institute (Wifo) lowered its economic forecast last Friday. Economic researchers are now assuming a 7.7 percent drop in GDP for 2020, instead of the 6.8 percent drop assumed in October. And in 2021, economic output will only grow by 2.8 instead of 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate is expected to average 9.9 percent in 2020 and only drop slightly to 9.7 percent in 2021. For comparison: the unemployment rate by national definition was 8.7 percent a End of October, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to October 2019.
The forecasts “are not a surprise,” the politician told reporters in Vienna. “Next year will be more difficult and challenging.” Aschbacher said they had a “well-stocked toolbox for labor market policy,” such as short-term work, a labor offensive that includes the “Corona Labor Foundation,” restart bonus and apprentice bonus.
The situation in the labor market remains difficult
The Labor Minister, IHS Director Kocher and Wifo boss Badelt agreed that a decrease in the number of new corona infections has the highest priority for the national economy. “The most important determinant for the improvement of the economic situation and of the labor market is the improvement of the health situation and the reduction of the number of infections,” said Badelt. “For the moment, reducing the number of infections is the most important thing.” If the current lockdown works, this will also have positive effects on winter tourism in early 2021 and the job market situation “will relax a bit,” according to the Wifo boss.
Badelt is also concerned about the number of long-term unemployed. These “always remained high” even with the general recovery of the labor market in summer. There had to be longer-term measures in this area.
For the director of IHS, Kocher, the situation in the labor market is “still difficult” due to the crisis in the crown. If in a month, around January 2021, the unemployment figure will rise “particularly high”, “it is not that important”. The key is to improve the situation of corona infection, because then “you will come out of the crisis as well as possible in the labor market.” For Kocher, current labor market measures, such as short-time work, job bases, support for learning, are “a very good combination.” Without these measures, there would be “much, much more unemployment.”
Think carefully about school closings
Badelt and Kocher warned politicians not to take crown-related school closures lightly. “Possible school closures should be considered very carefully,” said IHS Principal Kocher. This is associated with “very high costs for many”. For Badelt, the closure of schools is “a severe blow” for women. The double burden of work and childcare has a negative effect on productivity.
The Labor Minister announced last Saturday that he would refer the elderly and long-term unemployed to the federal states as Corona “Contact Tracers.” There is a regional need for hundreds of workers, Aschbacher said when asked Monday. The minister appealed to interested agencies to report the need for “contact markers” to the Public Employment Service (AMS) so that placement could begin as soon as possible.
(WHAT)
