[ad_1]
Experts expect more unemployed and an economic contraction.
Not included in any forecast: the second stop. After the first, the economy slumped 12.8 percent in the second quarter of the year. The economy was just beginning to recover. Now it could be reduced by as much as a percentage point more than expected, said IHS chief economist Martin Kocher. Franz Schellhorn of Agenda Austria also sees the economic recession this year with a new stagnation at 8.9 percent.
So far, economists have assumed the economy will fall between 5.4 and 6.8 percent this year. A second wave of infections is included, but not a blockage. So far, the government has released 50 billion euros for short-term work, funds for difficult situations, etc.
Unlike in March, this time industry, commerce and services are not affected; however, there is a requirement for stores that ten square meters must be available per customer, and there are requirements in terms of security.
Stores remain open
Gastronomy has to close again. More relief measures are promised. All businesses closed in November will be compensated with 80 percent of the previous year’s turnover. This should be processed automatically based on existing tax data and is capped at € 800,000. Assistance that has already been used would be compensated. However, no new aid packages need to be prepared, according to IHS chief Kocher.
It is more important to keep the stop as short as possible and quickly return to normal mode. Aid must reach those affected without bureaucracy. This is exactly where the criticism of the opposition begins. Due to the ten billion euros earmarked for emergency funds and fixed cost grants, so far only 934 million euros have been paid to companies. The finance minister recently justified this with the fact that most requests were only made after the fact.
Up to and including September, the federal government paid significantly more for part-time work (five billion euros) and for supporting the many additional unemployed (1.5 billion euros in addition). At the height of the crisis, 1.3 million people were working part-time. Then came the wave of layoffs. At the end of October, 416,175 people were unemployed. Kocher expects unemployment in Austria to rise to just over 500,000 people. More importantly, unemployment is not taking hold.
(“Die Presse”, print edition, November 1, 2020)
