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meIn Lithuania, a new parliament will be elected this Sunday. The largest of the three Baltic republics has increasingly been in the spotlight of international politics. That was due to the situation in neighboring Belarus. A large protest movement emerged there in August after obvious electoral fraud. Lithuania, which is historically, economically and closely linked to Belarus, welcomed persecuted opposition members, took a tough stance against dictator Alexandr Lukashenka and hit the EU, mostly successfully, to get clear answers in the direction. from Belarus. As a result, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Lithuania in early October. He requested the confidence of the Baltics for his concern to maintain an intense dialogue with Russia, which Lukashenka supports.
Gerhard gnauck
Political Correspondent for Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania based in Warsaw.
Macron also visited the 300 French soldiers in the country; but Germany has probably gained more confidence as an ally in Lithuania. When NATO sent national mixed battalions to the Baltic states in 2017 in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Bundeswehr in Lithuania took the lead with around 500 soldiers. Furthermore, the fighter jets of the largest NATO countries monitor the airspace in the region, as the Baltic armies do not have such planes.
Foreign policy, however, was not a mild enough election campaign issue. Often it was about domestic, social and educational policies. At the same time, the pandemic was oppressive during the pre-election period. Latvia cut the “Baltic bubble” on September 11. Since May, the rule was that the inhabitants of the Baltic states could move freely in the region. This “bubble” was over, now national quarantine rules have been reintroduced. By Saturday, Lithuanian authorities announced 205 new corona infections, a new record since the start of the pandemic. Last week, the country, with just under three million people per capita, had a similar number of new cases to Germany.
Two parties clearly lead in the polls. The pandemic has improved the polls of the largest party in the current ruling coalition: the Bund der Bauern und Grünen (LVZS). A member of the party in the European Parliament is part of the Green parliamentary group, but the LVZS is in many ways more conservative and populist than the German Greens alliance, for example. Green Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis recently expressed his understanding for the controversial judicial reforms of the right-wing government in Poland. In polls, the CDU / CSU partner party, the opposition Union of the Fatherland / Christian Democrats (TS / LKD), is roughly on par with the LVZS. Former Finance Minister Ingrida Simonyte was the top candidate for this conservative force.
Several newly established parties on the center-right spectrum are likely to fail due to the five percent threshold. The large number of undecided voters also creates uncertainty about the outcome of the elections. In addition, a good half of the 141 seats are granted in direct electoral districts, where an absolute majority of the votes is necessary; otherwise, there will be a second vote two weeks later. So the first Sunday of elections is above all a political test of courage.
Many observers in the capital Vilnius (Wilna) believe that a green left coalition, similar to the previous one, is likely to form after the elections. The Social Democrats (LSDP), who ranked third in the polls, and the Polish minority party could form a coalition with the farmers and the Greens. On the other hand, the Unión de la Patria, even if it wins the elections, has little room for coalitions. A grand coalition of the two main parties is largely ruled out.
