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Spread the risk
Definition: threats to public health from the spread of COVID-19.
Objective: Reduce morbidity (incidence of disease) from COVID-19, the frequency of cases with severe forms of COVID-19 and a reduction in mortality (mortality) from COVID-19, while providing the greatest protection possible to vulnerable population groups (people at high risk).
Systemrisiko
Definition: Risk of overloading the health system with COVID-19 patients.
Objective: To ensure sufficient supply capacity (especially beds and staff capacity in intensive care and normal rooms) for the treatment of patients with COVID-19, guaranteeing regular care to the rest of the population.
Four dimensions of analysis are used, each of which is divided into several indicators.
1. Transferability
The indicators “Number of cases in 7 days” (new cases that have occurred in the last 7 days), “Incidence in 7 days” (new cases that have occurred in the last 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants), “Number of new clusters in a calendar week “,” Number of districts with new cluster cases within a calendar week “and” Number of districts with no cluster cases within a calendar week “are intended to help assess the epidemiological development of the spread of the SARS-CoV2.
2. Source search
The indicator “Cases with a clear source” shows the traceability of the chain of transmission as a result of the follow-up of cases and contacts. Here the source of infection is differentiated and it is shown whether it was most likely a transmission abroad (travel associated transmission) or whether the source of infection was in Germany (local transmission chain).
New-onset cases are also evaluated for their clinical manifestation of SARS-CoV2 infection (symptomatic / asymptomatic).
3. Resources
Indicators are used here that show existing and required supply capabilities. They contain the current occupation of the intensive and normal care units, as well as the current utilization of existing hospital capacities.
Link “Forecast Consortium”
4. Testing
The indicators “tests per 100,000 inhabitants”, tests of the last 7 days and the positive rate (percentage of positive tests in all tests by region) allow statements about test activity and provide information on the transmission process in the respective region.
