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The situation in the South Caucasus Nagorno-Karabakh region of unrest has escalated after unusually fierce fighting between belligerent neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan interpreted the fighting as a declaration of war against his people. Armenia declared a state of war and announced a general mobilization. In Azerbaijan, a state of war with curfews should be applied in some parts of the country starting at midnight (10 pm CEST).
“The authoritarian Aliyev regime has resumed its hostilities. It has declared war on the Armenian people,” Pashinyan said in Yerevan on Sunday. “We are ready for this war.” Earlier, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, had started a military operation on the demarcation line and spoke of the capture of seven villages.
The Armenian-controlled region with an estimated 145,000 inhabitants is part of Islamic Azerbaijan under international law. It is the worst escalation in decades.
According to both parties, fighting broke out early Sunday morning between the warring countries. The capital of Nagorno-Karabach, Stepanakert, is said to have been shot. Numerous houses were destroyed. Videos could be seen of tanks moving through cities and clouds of smoke rising over Stepanakert. In Nagorno-Karabakh, 16 soldiers were shot dead and more than 100 injured, according to official information. Azerbaijan announced that there were five dead and wounded in its own ranks. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, civilians are among the victims.
According to the Defense Ministry, Azerbaijan captured seven villages in the conflict zone. Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov said the areas were liberated from the Armenian occupation. The Nagorno-Karabakh authorities stressed that this was an “outright lie”. You would already have the situation under control.
Both sides blamed themselves for the fighting. Armenia shot down helicopters and combat drones. Three enemy tanks were hit. Azerbaijan denied it. President Aliyev accused Armenia of having destroyed the negotiation process for a peaceful solution to the conflict. The current state is no longer acceptable. “That means the occupation must end.” Azerbaijan wants to resolve the conflict completely. “The Nagorno-Karabakh problem is our national responsibility,” Aliyev said.
Azerbaijan lost control of the area in a war that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nagorno-Karabakh is now inhabited by Karabakh-Armenian Christians. Since 1994 there has been a fragile ceasefire. Completely impoverished Armenia relies on Russia as a protective power, which has stationed thousands of soldiers and weapons there. Yerevan had only finished a joint military exercise with Moscow at the weekend. Azerbaijan, which is rich in oil and gas, has Turkey as an allied sister state.
Baku had repeatedly announced that it would take the region back with military force if necessary. The country had vastly improved its military in recent years. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already assured Azerbaijan of his support. Both countries held a major military exercise in Azerbaijan this summer to deter Armenia.
The conflict escalated for the last time in 2016. More than 120 people died. A few months ago, in July, intense fighting broke out again on the border between the countries at war; however, the fighting took place hundreds of kilometers north of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russian political scientists suggested that a further escalation could delay efforts in the region by decades. Russian expert Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Center in Moscow wrote that skirmishes are not skirmishes that have always taken place in the past. “A war is announced here.” States like Russia and the US would have to do everything possible to stop this development.
In addition, experts doubted the representation of Azerbaijan. According to the turan.az portal, political scientist Arkadi Dubnow sees a well-calculated “war” on the Azerbaijani side. Russia will only condemn the “brutal” actions of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey, but will not open another front.
The head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, spoke personally with the head of the Armenian government. Moscow is seriously concerned about the situation, the Kremlin said. All fights should end. A new escalation should be avoided in all circumstances. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had intensive talks with his Turkish colleague Mevlüt Cavusoglu. The conflicting parties would have to return to the negotiating table, he said.
Germany and France called for the immediate cessation of the fighting and the resumption of dialogue. German Chancellor Heiko Maas (SPD) was alarmed by the clashes and reports of civilian casualties. The OSCE Minsk Group is ready for negotiations with its three co-chairs, France, Russia and the United States. The OSCE is the organization for security and cooperation in Europe.
Iran also offered to act as a mediator in the conflict. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Said Chatibsadeh said on Sunday, according to the Isna news agency. Tehran is following the fighting in the southern Caucasus with great concern. Iran maintains good diplomatic relations with both states and has mediated the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in the past.
The President of the Council of the EU, Charles Michel, expressed his deep concern in a tweet. The only way out is an immediate return to negotiations without preconditions. The Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Marija Pejčinović Burić, also said that the states in conflict must take responsibility and act with restraint. “By joining the Council of Europe, both countries pledged to resolve the conflict by peaceful means, and this obligation must be strictly adhered to.”
Pope Francis called for a peaceful solution to the conflict. “I pray for peace in the Caucasus,” he said in his Angelus message to believers in St. Peter’s Square. He called on the parties to the conflict to use “gestures of goodwill and brotherhood” to help ensure that problems are not resolved through violence and weapons, but through dialogue and negotiations.
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