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Only 14 days remain until the Vienna elections. “Today” he asked ATV how the game is going in Vienna. Surprising: H.-C. Strache is under increasing pressure.
Vienna will elect a new state parliament in exactly two weeks. “Today” has, as of the beginning of September, a large survey in cooperation with the television station ATV (Unique Research, 1,610 respondents, fluctuation range ± 2.4 percent) sent to the field. Poll researcher Peter Hajek says: “The estimate is not a forecast of the outcome of the October 11, 2020 election, but rather describes the mood at the time of the survey, that is, two to three weeks before the elections”. Around 130,000 voters are still available. You say you are still undecided. While Mayor Ludwig can count on a clear electoral victory, Heinz-Christian Strache is likely to fail despite the massive media presence at the 5 percent hurdle to move to city hall.
This is what stands out in the survey:
► The SPÖ continues to grow. After a weak start to the year, the SPÖ is increasingly heading towards Election Day. While Mayor Michael Ludwig’s party was 41 percent two weeks ago, now you can even participate 42 percent count on October 11. Michael Häupl reached 39.6 percent in 2015. Opinion researcher Peter Hajek: “Michael Ludwig was able to win in profile and acts as an anchor for voters beyond the central SPÖ electorate.” The only factor of uncertainty: “The SPÖ could be under pressure due to the sharp increase in the number of corona infections.” Older voters, the Reds’ regular clientele, could forgo polling stations for security reasons. “In return, there could be a solidarity effect with the continued criticism of Vienna,” Hajek said.
► ÖVP sinks below 20 percent.The turquoise surrounding the finance minister, Gernot Blümel, yield one percentage point and are now allowed to surrender 19 percentt hope: second place and best result since 1987 are safe for you. Peter Hajek: “ÖVP voters have a significant tendency to vote by mail, which can be an advantage in times of Covid 19.” Issue: The increasingly declining personality values of top candidate Gernot Blümel in the fictitious direct election for mayor, in which he lost another three percent in just 14 days.
► The greens improved slightly. The eco party can continue to expect a slight increase of three percent compared to 2015. Unique Resarch continues to maintain the roof of the Greens despite the double participation of the government (Vienna and the federal government) 15 percent. Expert Hajek: “There is a risk that you will lose media attention in a red-turquoise crown confrontation.”
► FPÖ loses two-thirds of the voters. The Freedom Party must now await the television clashes. As in early September, the poll sees the blues. 9 percent. A real hurdle after second place at 30.8 percent in 2015. A glimmer of hope: Top candidate Dominik Nepp gained popularity and caught up with Heinz-Christian Strache in direct mayoral elections. Opinion researcher Hajek: “Unlike Strache, the classical FPÖ voters are well mobilized. If the number of infections increases, the high proportion of blue voters at the polling stations could become a problem.”
► Strache misses the 5 percent hurdle. “Strache’s team is the most difficult to assess, as there are no current comparative values. They have recently lost ground; the chances of joining the local council are intact,” summarizes opinion researcher Peter Hajek. Unique Research is currently looking at it 4 percent – That would be very little for a passage to the state parliament on October 11 and a personal disaster for the former vice chancellor, who had fallen into the abyss. Strache deficiency: “With the undecided, there is almost no potential for Strache’s team,” says Hajek.
► Neos does not move from the place.The rosés are included in the election one after Beate Meinl-Reisinger with the main candidate Christoph Wiederkehr 7 percent – a little better than five years ago. Peter Hajek: “Neos voters are very well mobilized. The challenge is keeping mobilization high.”
► Participation increases. Compared to the first wave of the survey, the expected participation increased by six percentage points 71 Percentage (2015: 74.8 percent). The voting card turnout is 41 percent (Range of fluctuation ± 2.7 percent) be tall. “But there are clear differences between the parties,” explains Peter Hajek, “because the voters of Strache and FPÖ tend to the polling station, the ÖVP voters to the voting card.”
You can read the raw data from Unique Research’s survey HERE >>
