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The Vienna elections on October 11 are constantly approaching. And above all a question arises: What coalition should govern Vienna?
The battle for town hall will come to a head in the coming weeks. “Today” has conducted the largest poll on the Vienna elections to date in cooperation with the TV station ATV (Unique Research, 1,600 respondents, fluctuation range ± 2.4 percent) sent to the field. Provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of mind in the federal capital. In addition to the high esteem on election night, he also wondered which coalition the Viennese would like.
Ludwig and Hebein’s favorites
Clearly, first of all there is red-green, the current ruling constellation. Of course, under a completely different leadership than in the 2015 elections. The mayor of SPÖ is no longer Michael Häupl, but Michael Ludwig. And the director of the Wiener Grünen is now Birgit Hebein, not Maria Vassilakou anymore. 28 percent of Viennese surveyed (representative sample) would like a new edition of the SPÖ-Green government.
Mathematically, a majority greater than the Red-Green would only come from a pact between the SPÖ and the ÖVP. Finance Minister Gernot Blümel is the main candidate of the Popular Party. The popularity among the population is significantly lower than that of the current variant. 19 percent want a “grand coalition” at the state level.
Mathematically not possible
All other options are, depending on the current state, plus a brain game. Because none of them reached a majority according to current polls. SPÖ and Neos together would get 48 percent of the vote, but only 9 percent of those surveyed would like that anyway. A coalition that bypasses the SPÖ, which consists of the Greens, ÖVP and NEOS, is also not mathematically possible currently. And probably also politically. The Viennese head of NEOS, Christoph Wiederkehr, has already ruled out that he becomes mayor of Blümel (“He cannot calculate and lied to the Ibiza-U-Committee”).
The FPÖ and the HC Strache team were not asked. No other party has indicated that it is even considering a coalition with these parties.
About the survey
Client: “Today” And ATV
Method: Combination of telephone and online surveys
Objective group: Viennese population with voting rights
Sample size: 1,603 respondents
Maximum range of fluctuation of the results: +/- 2.4%
Field work: August 28 to September 4, 2020
Download the raw data here >>
