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The crown pandemic in Germany may gain momentum again: the number of reproductions increased to more than one, as announced by the Robert Koch Institute in its daily status report on the crown pandemic on Saturday.
▶ ︎ Experts estimate the value at 1.10. On Friday, the RKI had estimated it at 0.83. The number of reproductions indicates how many people a person infected with a pathogen infects during their illness.
However: In view of the statistical fluctuations, which would be exacerbated by the relatively small number of people currently infected, the RKI cannot be said, “however, whether the trend of new infections that has declined in recent weeks has continued or whether the number of cases has increased again. ” .
Because with the current number of new infections, which has been below 1000 on average for a few days, a small increase in cases already leads to a corresponding increase in the number of reproductions.
However, the increase in the estimated number of reproductions means that “in any case it is necessary to observe development very carefully in the coming days”.
According to the RKI, 168,551 infections with the new coronavirus have now been detected in Germany. Around 143,300 of those affected have already recovered, 7,369 infected people have died.
Does relaxation come anyway?
The fact that the R value has again exceeded the critical value of 1 leads many to the question of whether the relaxation that has been decided will come anyway.
As a reminder: The federal government and federal states announced a powerful reduction in crown requirements on Wednesday, which will vary in size and speed depending on the federal state.
Among other things, a gradual reopening of the catering trade is planned. This also applies to hotels, guest houses and holiday apartments. The basis should be the common concepts of hygiene and distance from the respective ministerial conferences.
Federal states must decide on their own responsibility for gradual opening in other areas. These include conferences at universities, opening of music schools, bars, clubs and discotheques, fairs, driving schools and cosmetic studies. This also applies to theaters, concert halls and cinemas.
The R value alone is unlikely to change any of the announced relaxation. Another mechanism agreed at the conference is decisive: a kind of upper limit as an emergency brake.
The goal of federal states is to ensure that a consistent restriction concept is implemented immediately in counties or independent cities with more than 50 new infections per 100,000 residents in the past seven days.
And there are exceptions even here: If the infection process can be clearly delimited, for example within a care center, then the concept of restriction could only include this center and not the entire district, Chancellor Angela Merkel said in Berlin on Wednesday.
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