Lightning and NASCAR collapsed frustratingly this summer, leading to numerous delays in the race, but who could have imagined their connection to one person?
The chance at Martin Truex Jr.’s five consecutive third places. is almost equal to the chances of a person being struck by lightning in a given year.
The chances of Truex scoring a back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back finish in third place were 1 million for one, according to Jeremy Losak, assistant professor at the Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics at Syracuse University.
The chances of being struck by lightning in a given year are 1 in 1.2 million, according to the National Water Service.
Never in the history of NASCAR has a driver finished in third place for five races in a row.
That does not impress Truex.
“Like the third place is exactly where we are at the moment,” he said with a hint of disgust after last weekend’s race at the Daytona track.
Crew boss James Small calls those finishes in third place ‘frustrating’ because the team has been so close to winning.
However, he tries to comfort him. Little notes that finishing third is’ better than fourth. It’s better than crashing. ”
But then he adds, “it’s not fun.”
Truex’s race ended nearly Aug. 8 in the first race in Michigan, which finished his third consecutive third place finish. He finished eighth on the restart. Truex passed five cars in the first lap of overtime, but could not get any other positions on the final lap. He finished behind winner Kevin Harvick and striker Brad Keselowski.
Truex will have a chance to break the line – or extend for a sixth consecutive race – Saturday at Dover International Speedway (4pm ET on NBCSN).
The chance that Truex will finish third in all six of these races is 23.5 million to 1, said Losak, who determines the chance for NBC Sports.
The chance of winning the jackpot in the Mega Millions is 302 million to 1. So compared to that, there is a good chance that Truex will finish third again on Saturday.
Although the run of Truex will continue, it will become part of Losak’s sports data and analytics class at Syracuse.
“I will probably show this (the students) as an example of how to do this kind of thing,” he said.
Losak discovered the likelihood with the help of a teaching assistant, who provided research. Losak, used DraftKings drivers odds, checked historical data, wrote code and ran 100 million simulations to determine the odds.
“The more simulations I run, the more accurate the number,” Losak told NBC Sports. “Seeing how unlikely this event could happen, if I did not run enough simulations, you would have a bump for times it would happen zero times. So I had to run simulation enough times to get some times where it actually hit. ”
Losak notes that Truex’s chances are better than most drivers, because Truex has a better record. Most drivers, Losak noted, would have about a 4 million to one chance of finishing third in five races in a row. Losak also said they have an 85.7 million for those drivers after one chance to finish third in these six consecutive races.
“I like doing things like this,” Losak said. “It’s just fun to feed with the data.”
Truex saves his fun for when he’s back in Victory Lane.
2. Personal changes
Noah Gragson has endured a lot on the track this season. He had an affair with teammate Justin Allgaier, a fight with Harrison Burton and contact with Riley Herbst and Myatt Snider. But it’s off track that Gragson has been focusing on lately.
“I’ve made a lot of changes in my personal life over the past week and a half,” Gragson said after finishing third last weekend at the Daytona Roadcourse. “I’m just trying to clear things up on my end, not even on the racetrack, just trying to be a better headspace when I get to the racetrack.”
Asked what he did in particular to achieve that, Gragson said:
“Just try to focus on my priorities and focus on what will make me better for our team at JR Motorsports and how I can apply myself more. Whether it’s friendships that are not really the best that bring kind of drama into my life or just different things, just try to eliminate these options.
‘I spent a lot of time at home, really did nothing, studied film, played Xbox and went to the store. … trying to clean up my friends, trying to clean up that extra drama that brings into my life, things that the less I can think about the day, the better I can be on the racetrack. There are a lot of things going through my head right now. “
Gragson finished the Xfinity Series doubleheader in Dover this weekend third in points with victories in the season-opening race at Daytona and at Bristol. He goes into Saturday’s race (12:30 pm ET on NBCSN) with the top-10 finishes each of the past two weeks.
3. Choose your path
The voting rule returns to Dover International Speedway this weekend.
The rule, which was tried at the Bristol All-Star Race, and used earlier in the month at Michigan, will be in place for the rest of the season, except for the Charlotte Roval and races at Daytona and Talladega.
As a rule, drivers can choose whether to start again on the indoor or outdoor track. Chase Elliott used it to take the lead at Michigan. He was fifth in line, but the top four cars took the outer lane, so he took the inner lane and started again next to leader Kevin Harvick. Elliott passed Harvick and led nine runs. Harvick took the lead again and went on to win the first of two races that weekend. Elliott dropped to seventh.
For any preparation team that might decide which job to choose based on what other drivers are doing, William Byron says it is not that complicated about what to do.
“I think Dover is pretty even on choice for lane,” he said. “I know the bottom lane is not accelerating as fast in the restart zone. So if you might be second, you can choose to start the fourth again (outside lane 2) instead of the inside in the second. I think it all feels normal and how you handle your car. Sure, the engineers can try to make it as scientific as possible. But usually, common sense just plays into a rule like this for sure. ‘
4. Looking ahead
Car owner Jack Roush explained to reporters this week what he liked about the changes this season and one thing in particular that could be better for owners.
Roush is a fan of one-day races, reflecting the sentiments of others, including Stewart-Haas Racing-with-owner Tony Stewart and JTG Daugherty Racing co-owner Brad Daugherty.
“We have shown that we can do one-day races and there may be an opportunity to go to one place that we would not otherwise have planned to go to, that may not have enough hotel space capacity,” Roush said. “Some of the other things will exclude the rule that we have one of our cup events, so I think maybe we can participate in one-day races, that will be fun.”
He also noted another change he liked.
‘The one thing that comes from the shorttracks I had not experienced before, but the choice or opportunity to make each car and each driver a choice if he wants to start inside or outside (restart) .. “That’s an interesting dimension of strategy and consideration that I think makes racing more exciting for me,” said Roush.
Responding to the challenges facing owners, Roush said: “NASCAR is able to make the most of the money that comes into the sport and what it costs to run the racetracks or their relationships with the racetracks. “what the company needs to do its organizational work. I’m also not the person to take on, but for the money that is distributed to the teams, it is not enough to make it very exciting from a business point of view.”
5. Out of sync
If Kyle Busch does not win any of the cup matches at Dover this weekend, it will mark for the first time in his cup career that he failed to win by race 26 in a season.
Busch has one win in the last 45 races. That victory came at Miami in the finals last year, giving Busch his second career title. In that same time, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates from Busch won 15. Busch has 56 career cup victories, one ahead of Kevin Harvick.
