Both systems are expected to develop into tropical depressions like storms later this week. Tropical Storms Laura and Marco, the next names on the list for the year, would be the fastest 12th and 13th storms to form, smashing more records for most storms this season.
“What people need to realize is that we are still 23 days from the peak of the hurricane season, and we are very much at a record pace,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
Hurricane season peaks typically around September 10, when waters in the Atlantic Ocean near them are warm. To have so many named storms up to this peak is unusual. What’s more, 85% of major hurricanes (Category 3 and above) occur after August 20th. This is due to warmer ocean water and less wind bearing. Windshear is the change in wind speed and direction at altitude, a phenomenon that pushes storms apart.
Eleven tropical storms have already developed in the Atlantic this year, compared to the typical three to date. Tropical Storm Kyle formed and dispersed last weekend, the earliest having formed the 11th storm. Normally it does not form until November, and there is no average date for the 12th storm, as there are typically no more than 12 named storms in a season.
Development in Central Atlantic could soon become Tropical Storm Laura
The eruption that is likely to develop into tropical storm Laura is located 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression like storm within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of developing within the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center Tuesday morning. If Tropical Storm becomes Laura, it would break the record for the earliest 12th storm on record, previously set on August 29, 1995.
“The most significant spider is currently in the Central Atlantic Ocean west of the Leeward Islands,” Myers said. “The models are doing stronger and arriving in the islands Friday or Saturday. Long-term models are trying to take it into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.”
The second disturbance, which lies north of Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea, is not an immediate threat. However, as it moves to the west-northwest southwest of Cuba and toward the southern tip of Mexico, conditions will become much more favorable for its development. It has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next five days according to the National Hurricane Center.
Although it is too early to say for sure, both systems appear to be on track to affect the new U.S. mainland by next week and are being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
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