The Houston Astros lost their fourth straight game on Saturday, dropping to 6-8 on the season with a loss to the Oakland Athletics. The Astros are now 4 1/2 games behind the A’s in the American League West, making this the first time since 2016 that they have been so late in the season, according to research by Sarah Langs of MLB.com.
For those who have not kept up with the misery of the Astros’ early seasons, let’s explain what’s going on in Houston by highlighting three talking points that are worth knowing.
Offensive has been good, with one notable exception
The lineup of the Astros was voted on Saturday by Frankie Montas, but they have been one of the most productive units in baseball from a total perspective. Houston came in fourth in the major in the score on Saturday and ranks fifth in the FanGraphs’ wRC + – an offensive stature that adapts everything to ballpark and weighs well on the base percentage.
Based on history, it would be fair to expect Jose Altuve to lead the offensive charge. That has not been the case. Of the nine Astros hitters to receive at least 40 record appearances entering Saturday’s game, only three had OPS + under 100: one expected, in catcher Martin Maldonado (82), and two not, in young outfielder Kyle Tucker (76) and Altuve (82)), who came off Saturday’s game with a season-high of .177 / .261 / .355.
In a small sample so far, Altuve has swung and failed more often than usual and made weaker contact than it connects, according to Statcast. He’s apparently going to battle it out at some point, but his cravings are striking compared to the rest of the lineup’s success.
2. injuries, youth is abundant of pitching staff
Houston seems offensive like themselves, but that’s not the case on the side of things. The Astros are currently working without stalwarts or potential stalwarts such as Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock, and Chris Devenski due to injury. Factor in Joe Smith’s decision to take off and’s offseason ‘from Will Harris to the Washington Nationals, and Dusty Baker is left with a largely anonymous pitching staff.
The Astros rotation includes Framber Valdez (who threw the ball well in Saturday’s defeat), Cristian Javier, and Brandon Bielak. The Bullpen, meanwhile, has the following names: Blake Taylor, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes, Humberto Castellanos, Carlos Sanabria, Nivaldo Rodriguez, and Brandon Bailey, who was taken by the Baltimore Orioles in draft 5 of the last winter and then came back before the pandemic started and the league was shut down.
Is it any wonder why the Astros rank 15th in the staff size ERA, as opposed to taking their normal perch at the top of the league? Or why they have the third most bullpen meltdowns (a stat based on winning chance added), ahead of just the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels.
Reduce each team to so many rookies and they will have some relatively hard times.
3. Many close defeats
Here are the margins of defeat in the eight losses of the Astros, in chronological order:
- 1
- 3
- 2 (in 13 innings)
- 1 (in 10 innings)
- 7
- 1
- 1 (in 13 innings)
- 2
Those are four losses with one run (second most in MLB) and three losses of extra innings (most) in 14 games. The Astros have lost so many close games that, despite their record, they entered Saturday with the 10th best run differential in baseball on a per-game basis, ahead of teams with significantly better records, such as the 10-3 Chicago Cubs and 8 -6 Chicago White Sox.
It can be argued that differential run is a misleading metric for a team like the Astros, who have so many young relievers and who are likely to have more damage than the typical team. It’s an honest point. However, differential runs a more reliable indicator of a team’s game in small samples than their record for win-loss.
Perhaps the Astros are proving to be fatal because of their exposure to pitching personnel. For now, and despite their early shortage in the AL West, it’s probably too soon to dismiss them as a bad team.
