WASHINGTON – If you want to know what a campaign really thinks about its opportunities, you do not listen to what it says, you see where its money lies.
This week’s Data Download looks at how Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s teams (and their main affiliated outside groups) have changed their broadcast for broadcast ads over the summer. The figures provide a glimpse into what the campaigns actually believe to be competitive and they seem to hold some good news for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
Each election season begins with a fairly well-defined election card, marked by states that feel both sides are really tossups and states where each side feels it can go on the offensive and change the outcome. Since June, advertising spending has shown that there has been movement in both groups for both candidates.
Much has been made of how Trump won the White House by flipping these three states to his column in 2016. Most everyone assumed that they would be a major focus of campaign and spending in these elections and that is mostly true.
Both campaigns seem to be fully engaged with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – between June 2 and July 20, both were actively spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a week in each – but there was one major shift in July.
In the week of June 2, the Trump and Biden forces spent at about the same level in Michigan, $ 474,000 for Team Trump and $ 498,000 for Team Biden. But in late June, the Trump number began to decline and by July 21, the figures were roughly $ 16,000 for Team Trump and about $ 1.5 million for the Biden effort in the state.
Those figures suggest that the Trump campaign and its key allies probably did not like what they saw on the ground in Michigan in terms of polls. And, of the three states, Michigan seems to be the hardest hit for the Trump campaign. A Detroit Free Press poll released on Friday revealed that Trump has narrowed the gap with Biden in a head-to-head matchup … to 11 points.
The Trump campaign does not need Michigan to win and perhaps thinks its money will be better spent elsewhere.
The Democrats lost the White House in 2016, so they need to turn around states that Trump won to have a chance in November. In addition to the three Great Lakes states that likely won the presidency for Trump, the Biden team has a particular interest in those states that, demographically, could be good causes for them. The advertising money spent in these states shows that both campaigns are now invested in pulling it out in Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, but Arizona looks different from the other two.
In Florida and North Carolina, the Biden team went from the week of June 2 until no money was spent at the end of July with Trump and his support groups. In the week of July 21, the figures were $ 1.4 million for Biden and $ 1.5 million for Trump in North Carolina. In Florida, it was $ 2.3 million for Biden and $ 2.4 million for Trump that week.
But in Arizona, Biden’s campaign and key allies went from nowhere to spending until Trump and his main groups did. In the week of June 2, Team Trump’s $ 161,000 increase was nothing for Biden. By the week of July 21, Biden and his groups had spent nearly $ 1.3 million on Trump and company $ 1.1 million
That’s a notable shift and, again, it’s come as surveys show that Biden is performing well in Arizona. In late July, an NBC News / Marist poll showed Biden up about 5 points, while a Morning Consult question left Biden up 7 points. Figures like these show why Biden is on the offensive here.
Even if you win the presidency, the goal is always to “expand the map” and make your opponent to defend states on his side of the ledger. At the beginning of this cycle, the Trump campaign talked about a few goals they had in mind, these three states are key to that list. At the end of this summer, some of these options seem like non-starters for the Trump team, at least by considering their advertising tax. But they may have stuck some ground in Nevada.
In Minnesota and New Mexico, a pretty clear pattern is evident. In both cases, the Trump money started at zero and then shot up rapidly in the $ 100,000-plus range per week before falling again. In Week 21, Trump’s ascent to Minnesota was down to $ 21,000 and New Mexico’s ascent to the team was down to about $ 7,000. All the while, Biden’s campaign and main groups have responded by doing nothing – the ultimate answer “I do not care if you want to spend money there”.
But in Nevada, the Trump Team has no guarantee. Their spending went to zero to more than $ 400,000 in the week of June 2 and remained there through July 21st. And while the Biden seemed to ignore that spending early on and through the 21st, more recent ad tubes suggest they are paying attention now.
The message in the state: Stay tuned, both campaigns can see this as a real and important battle.
Again, election day is still almost three months away and the heavy campaign advertising spending is yet to rise. Campaign perceptions and pitches may change, and the Trump campaign has shifted its advertising strategy under its new campaign manager. But as of late July / early August, Joe Biden and his largest support groups appear to be taking steps in Great Lakes and pulling in their targets on offense, while the Trump team is looking for an opening in the Southwest.
