CHICAGO – Younger people account for an increasing percentage of new cases of coronavirus in cities and states where the virus is now emerging, a trend that has alarmed public health officials and prompted new requests for masks and social distancing.
In Arizona, where access sites are overwhelmed by people looking for evidence of coronavirus, people ages 20 to 44 account for almost half of all cases. In Florida, which breaks records for new cases almost every day, the average age of residents who tested positive for the virus dropped to 35, compared to March 65.
And in Texas, where the governor halted the reopening process on Thursday as hospitals become increasingly crowded, youth now account for the majority of new cases in various urban centers. In Cameron County, which includes Brownsville and the resort town of South Padre Island, people under the age of 40 account for more than half of the recently reported cases.
“What is clear is that the proportion of younger people seems to have changed dramatically,” said Joseph McCormick, professor of epidemiology at the UTHealth College of Public Health in Brownsville. “It is really quite disturbing.”
The pattern attracts the attention of mayors, governors, and public health officials, and presents itself as a troubling signal for cities and institutions as they look to fall. The increase in cases among younger people could complicate the plans of leaders who want to open schools and universities, resume sporting events and return to normal life and a fully functioning economy.
The increases could reflect a simple reality: Since many states have reopened bars, restaurants, and offices, the coronavirus has been allowed to spread more widely among communities, even to younger ones. But people in their 20s and 30s are also more likely to go out and socialize, experts say, raising concerns that asymptomatic youth are helping to transmit the virus to the most vulnerable Americans at a time when cases are increasing. dangerously in the south and west.
Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday that younger people have helped increase the increase in known coronavirus infections, and that in the past, many of those infections were not diagnosed.
“Our best estimate right now is that for every case that was reported, there were actually 10 other infections,” he said.
No single answer fully explains the increase in cases among young people, who are less likely to be hospitalized or die from the coronavirus than older people.
“Is it the reopening of the governor? Is it memorial day? Are they the George Floyd protests? Are you going to the beach? said Eric Boerwinkle, dean of the UTHealth School of Public Health in Houston. “We really don’t know, but it’s probably all of those things that are contributing.”
The United States recorded 36,975 new cases on Wednesday, a new high point in daily cases, as the country faced a new stage of the crisis two months after the previous peak in late April. The revival is immediately threatening states that reopened relatively early in the south and west. Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas reported their highest single-day totals this week, as did Montana and Utah, and cases rose in 29 states on Thursday.
Adriana Carter, 21, is among the newly infected.
For many weeks this spring, he said, he took steps to limit his exposure, ate many of his meals at his apartment in San Marcos, Texas, and wore a mask when going in and out of stores. In the only Black Lives Matter protest he attended, most of the people were masked.
But after a particularly long week of juggling online summer classes and his job at an eye clinic, Carter took a risk on a Saturday night in early June and caught up with a friend in Square, a popular bar district. from the center. Although they were careful to avoid crowded places, they opted not to wear masks while sipping drinks and enduring the warm Texas weather.
Days later, her friend woke up feeling sick. Both tested positive for the virus.
“They told us we could go out to bars,” she said, adding that she had been careful to quarantine since learning that she had been exposed. “It is very unusual for someone in their 20s to stay home all the time, without making excuses or anything, but I think we are all trying to do the best we can.”
The new cases among youth may seem like a departure from the early days of the pandemic, when infections in nursing homes were out of control, and the virus appeared at higher rates among older people in New York City.
Experts cautioned that the apparently new prevalence among young people may be, in part, a reflection of more widely available evidence. But the increasing number of people hospitalized in states like North Carolina and Texas also suggests increased transmission of the virus.
Even now, people under 50 are hospitalized at a much lower rate than people older than that, according to CDC data.
While the effect of the coronavirus in younger people “may not be closely associated with hospitalization and death,” Redfield said, “they act as a transmission connector for people who may actually be at higher risk.”
In Florida, which has become a particularly worrying place, reopened bars have been a source of contagion among young people. The state closed Knight’s Pub, a popular bar near the University of Central Florida in Orlando, after 28 customers and 13 employees were infected.
In Miami-Dade County, the number of known cases of coronavirus among people ages 18 to 34 increased five-fold in a month, to more than 1,000, Mayor Carlos Giménez said this week.
“They are thinking they are invincible,” he said, adding that many of those infected have no symptoms.
However, they are at higher risk if they are overweight or have diabetes or other medical conditions, he said. About a third of the coronavirus patients in the Jackson public health system were in that age group, and about half had a high body mass index, Giménez said.
Governor Ron DeSantis described “a real explosion in new cases” among younger people. “Part of it is natural,” he said. “You are leaving and you want to be doing things. You want to be away from home. People who are older and would be more vulnerable are a little more careful. “
In fact, some experts believe that older people’s decision to stay home and take precautions to avoid the virus may, in part, help explain why young people appear to be a growing share of new cases.
In Dallas County, people between the ages of 18 to 40 accounted for 52% of newly reported cases since early June, a jump from the 38% that youth accounted for in March, according to county data.
At the same time, older people have begun to account for a smaller portion of the total number of people who test positive for the virus. In June, people over 65 accounted for 8% of new confirmed cases in Dallas County, up from 16% in March.
The situation is particularly troubling in Hays County, home to Texas State University at San Marcos. Coronavirus cases have increased since the beginning of June, to 2,100 this week, from 371 at the beginning of the month. People in their 20s now account for more than half of all known cases, authorities said.
In Arizona, increasing infections have pushed many people to the limit, including some residents in their 20s and 30s.
In Arcadia, Arizona, Ian Bartczak, 31, said he was not comfortable dining in restaurants and was appalled to see crowds of young people huddled in patios and bars on a strip mall near his home.
“It goes back to, what is a wish and what is a need?” said Bartczak, who works for an educational technology company. “Did you have to go to a big swimming party or El Hefe nightclub with your friends?”
His point of view has created discomfort with some friends, he said. He declined invitations to go out for sushi and friends who chose to visit the casinos puzzled him.
“It affected some of my relationships because I won’t see them or get angry,” he said. “How can you not be willing to help the old woman behind you who might have a poor immune system? Or help reduce our cases so that we can increase our economy?
In Phoenix, Michael Donoghue, a 33-year-old investment analyst, said he felt comfortable going out, being careful, as he is single, healthy, living alone, and careful to avoid close contact with people who might be at risk, like his 91-year-old grandmother.
Only once the restrictions in that state were lifted did he feel uncomfortable while he was away, he said. A bar he visited with friends in Scottsdale was crowded.
“I just felt, should we be doing this now?” he said.
The resurgence of the virus echoes its early days in the United States, as places like the state of California and Washington, which saw some of the country’s first outbreaks, were seeing further increases.
In King County, Washington, which includes Seattle, people in their 20s and 30s account for about 45% of new coronavirus cases, a number that was 25% in March, according to Dr. Judith A. Malmgren, epidemiologist in Seattle.
She believes that the actual percentage is even higher than what is being measured because younger people are less likely to be symptomatic. That said, she cautioned that the risk of infecting other people was severe.
“Just because you belong to an age group less likely to die from coronavirus,” he said, “doesn’t mean you live alone.”
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