PHOENIX (AP) – Arizona has seen a 20% increase in deaths in the first seven months of this year – and not all of them are directly linked to the coronavirus.
Public health experts say it will take months to determine what the death rate is. Possible explanations include overdose and suicide by people struggling with isolation or unemployment during the pandemic; patients undergoing chronic diseases after postponement of hospital visits due to fears about contracting the virus there; and killed by Arizona’s severe regular flu season, which ran from October to April.
“There are many ways in which you can see too many deaths from other causes in the midst of this,” said Dr Bob England, a former director of public health for Maricopa and Pima counties.
The Arizona Department of Health Services said it has received informal reports of increases in 911 calls that may suggest people delayed essential medical care during the pandemic. It has also noted that deaths from overdoses are increasing and some communities have reported slight jumps in suicides.
A more complete understanding of the figures will emerge after certificate deaths are verified, the agency said.
The state recorded more than 7,100 more deaths in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period of 2019. About 4,100 of those killed were a direct result of the coronavirus, leaving 3,000 deaths from other causes. In all, 42,582 people died in Arizona in the first seven months of the year.
“Could any of that be associated with isolation and loneliness? That was one of the things we were worried about, ‘Drs. Cara Christ, the top public health official, last month when asked if there was a link between the pandemic and suicide and overdoses.
Some of the deaths may be indirectly related to the virus, said Dr. Rebecca Sunenshine, medical director of disease control for the Maricopa County Health Department. For example, people who have congestive heart failure or lung disease may get a small COVID-19 infection that aggravates their underlying conditions.
“They may actually be suffering from heart failure or lung disease, and we may not even know about COVID-19,” Sunenshine said.
Pima County medical researcher Dr. Greg Hess has written an analysis of the increasing number of deaths in his jurisdiction that have occurred, even as homicides and suicides have declined slightly.
Pima County began to see an increase in overdose deaths before the onset of the pandemic, leaving Hess unable to conclude whether those deaths were related to the virus.
Many people thought there would be fewer traffic fatalities during the pandemic because people work from home and drive less time. Hess said he found a slight increase in car deaths in Pima County.
Other states have seen a similar increase in deaths since the pandemic began, said Zhao Chen, an epidemiologist and chronic disease at the University of Arizona’s College of Public Health.
Chen said Arizona’s growing population could explain some of the increase in overall deaths, though she doubts growth is the only factor.
“There are some indications that the excessive number of deaths cannot be explained by the population size or the bad flu season,” Chen said.
When virus test kits were scarce earlier in the pandemic, some deaths that may have been caused by COVID-19 can be attributed to other causes, Chen said.
England said it expects increased deaths not directly attributed to the coronavirus to continue due to the severe pandemic. One reason is that some people who no longer have health insurance after losing their jobs may do so without their normal level of health care, he said.
“The virus itself and our inability to control it without seriously damaging the economy will have long-term health consequences, including additional deaths,” England said.
The Department of Health Services said its final report on the causes of death in 2020 will be available late next year.
“It will take us a while to figure out which ones are indirectly thanks to COVID and which ones are directly to COVID – and if all the increase can be attributed to COVID or if something else happens,” Sunenshine said.
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