The Braves failed to miss a beat on Friday night as they emerged from two consecutive off-days (one plea, one due to rain) to deliver a fair beatdown on an elite-to-date Aaron Nola and the Phillies. They will try it out by sticking to what looks like an appropriate-oddball matchup for what has been a bizarre season so far.
Let’s start with Robbie Erlin, who is away from leaving the Padres, after parting ways with the Pirates, giving up a grand slam at his first pitch as a Brave, after apparently a rotation spot in the decimated rotation of Atlanta. Erlin’s first start, which arrived in Miami Sunday, was about as much as you’d expect from the 29-year-old left-hander: four innings of one-hit, zero-walk, zero-run ball. It was also very strange for one specific reason: although Erlin has not specifically been a “baseball pitcher” in his career, he still got the ball to the field, in principle a league average rate. However, in his four innings versus the Marlins he got a large total of zero wormkillers, The lowest starting angle against him on a ball in play this day was 14 degrees, and the average was 43.5 degrees. No starter so far this season has scored eight or more balls in play in an outing with a higher average launch angle, though Lance Lynn has come very close. That probably won’t happen again, but it was appropriately early for 2020.
Speaking of weird, let’s move on to the real meat of this matchup in that regard: the big purchase of the Phillies ’offseason, Zack Wheeler. (Also my kingdom for a chance to cover an Erlin-Eflin matchup. Unfortunately, Eflin apparently looks like tomorrow for the Phils.) Signed to a five-year $ 118 million deal in the offseason, Wheeler’s topline stats through four starts show there good out if not immediately comfortable for his new employers: 62 ERA- (yay), 77 FIP- (yay), 99 xFIP- (maybe a little disappointing, but in line with a 97 career mark and it’s only been four starts ).
But, if you even see a Teeny a little deeper … the mouth of madness opens. In those four starters, Wheeler has beaten just 12 bosses, exhibiting a strike rate that has been nice halved relative to his previous performances. Of the 92 pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings so far this season, only Ryan Weber and Mike Fiers have a lower strikeout rate, only seven pitchers have a lower K% -BB% (Wheeler’s is at 6.0%, given 12 strikeouts and six walks.) In fact, Wheeler seems to be making it his personal mission to add more ball-in-play action to baseball: of all pitchers who have hit 20 or more innings, he has the lowest three-true- outcome percentage (ie percentage of PAs ending up in a homer, walk, or strikeout) in baseball, at just 13 percent.
None of this is normal for Wheeler – that has not been who he is. Except for a five-start stretch with 14 strikeouts in August-September 2019, he only had 12 strikeouts or less in a four-start stretch twice, both coming back in full force in 2013. Even further, his statistics for flat discipline in principle is the same in 2020. Relative to 2019, the only plate discipline metrics for Wheeler in 2020 that are not even within one percent of its previous mark are z-swing (up by almost three percent), o-contact (up by just more then three percent), and general contact (up by about two percent). The zone rates and whiff rates are basically the same. (Note that under different word zone formulations, such as Statcast versus the BIS, this may not be the case, but it’s still strange.)
However, the Phillies probably can not complain too much about this, as they have won three of Wheeler’s four starts. Stay tuned, and we’ll find out together if Erlin can keep up with what he did against the Marlins (both in terms of no grounders, in terms of no runes), and whether Wheeler maintains the ball-in-play magnetism he is exhibited so far.
The Phillies tried to support their relief corps yesterday, getting former Brave David Hale of the Yankees, as well as Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree of the Red Sox. Both Hale and Workman were very good last year (Workman was elite), while Hembree is more of a recent roster spot. We’ll see if it makes a difference for a relief corps that is pretty bad but looks much less so because of luck and random variation.
Game Info
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
7:10 a.m. EDT, August 22, 2020
Truist Park (addicted), Atlanta, GA
TV: Fox Sports South
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM, WNNX 100.5, Braves Radio Network
XM Radio: XM 186 (Streaming 841)
PS In every game with Zack Wheeler I am required to mention that the Giants traded him once for half a season of Carlos Beltran in a season in which they did not even make the playoffs. Let’s all show up and laugh around the Giants.
