“I don’t understand how a member of the LDS Church can support someone who is a critic and has shown solidarity ever since he came to our opinion,” said Harry Redd, a former Nevada Senate majority leader and Democrat from Nevada and a church member. .
Trump’s campaign hopes more Mormons have gone like Lee and right-wing radio host Glenn Beck – former critics who have come out in support of Trump.
In 2016, Democrats did not appear to convert many of the Mormons who voted against Trump. Some were sitting at home, while many others voted against the third-party LDS candidate for the RUT, Evan McMullen, who received 21 percent of Utah’s vote. Ms. Cumulin also received about a percent percent share in neighboring Idaho, but her support in Arizona was negligible because she was not listed on the ballot and was only a written candidate.
Without McMullen in the race, and with the expectation of a return from 2016 onwards, both parties see a very small group of potentially resigned voters at a very indefinite time.
Romney’s niece, McDaniel, said not having a third-party ticket with Evan McMullen would help us give some of those voters a chance to pull into Trump camp.
Mum Cumulin, who still opposes Trump, said he thinks some of his supporters will vote for the president but that “most people who voted for a third party in 2016 will support Biden in this election.” He argued that some Republicans voted for Trump “out of habit”, but then sued him.
A Biden official acknowledged that Trump would improve his 2016 performance among Mormons, but Democrats aim to significantly limit those benefits. Some longtime LDS Democratic organizers said Biden had already improved Hillary Clinton’s efforts, which they said focused too much on Utah.
“The Biden campaign seems to be more aware of the Late-Day St. Diaspora in the Mountain West and the Atlantic South,” said Rob Taber, national co-chair of the Letter-Day St. Democrats in the United States.
“It’s not shocking that Trump wins the Mormon vote, but if he’s 10-15 points away from the Nevada and Arizona standards, that’s a big deal,” said Quinn Mons, a partner at Utah-based Poll Pay Y2 Analytics. And a professor of political science at Brigham Young University, funded by the Church. “He’s suddenly the same Republican in a quarter of African-American votes, and I think he’s in the realm of possibility. He’s not entirely on Donald Trump.”
Yet, the Trump campaign seems to be devoting more time to their candidates to give Mormon voters to court. When Pence visited Arizona, Biden or his running mate Kamala Harris had no plans to participate in the Mormon-oriented program. Biden’s advisers believe his Catholic religion may appeal to LDS voters as well, but the campaign is not airing ads focusing on his religion in Arizona.
Voting averages Trump is trailing Biden by about 5 points in Arizona, and LDS voters could be decisive if the race gets tighter. In 2018, Kirsten Cinema won the huge Maricopa County – including Mesa Mor historically Mormon Para – becoming the first Democrat to win an Arizona Senate seat since the 1980s.
Trump’s campaign advisers have said they don’t see Maricopa County as a win-win; Instead, they are looking to run the presidential margin in rural Arizona. The LDS enclaves of the White Mountains will be the key to that endeavor.
Trump’s public embrace by some LDS members has sparked ambiguity in a community that once had a large monopoly on politics. Former Arizona state senator Bob Warsley, a Republican and founder of Skymalla, recently began publicly planning for Biden after the LDS group, organized by Trump, felt host to Pence last month, with the leadership in charge backing the president.
“I’ve never voted a Democrat in my life, but we think this man is hated.” He thinks more Mormons will vote for Biden than in 2016 because “some found the same lack of example of a good moral person like Hillary’s husband Bill.”
The church leadership, which members watch closely for political signals, has been forced to remain neutral in the race even as it continues its retreat against Trump on immigration. In 2018, the church opposed the administration’s policies, which resulted in the separation of families at the border.
“We are very disturbed by the aggressive and sensitive treatment of these families at that time.”
Biden’s campaign hopes that Trump’s record on immigration will push LDS voters, many Hispanics who have joined the church in recent years, towards Democrats. The campaign is creating an LDS volunteer program, using church members who support Baden to reach fellow Mormon friends and neighbors.
“At the end of the day, President Trump reflects the policy values of most Mormons more than Joe Biden,” said Mike Noble, partner and head of research at Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights polling firm. But Trump thinks it would be “by mistake” that he has a lock on LDS voters, he added.
“Whether or not they can put their erratic behavior in the stomach,” Noble said, “will be a potential decisive factor for many Mormons.”
