TOPLINE
A total of 19 oscillating state voter polls from four different pollsters were released Thursday, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump in each, including in historically Republican states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.
LANCASTER, PA – June 25: Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at … [+]
KEY FACTS
Biden leads by up to 18 points in Michigan in a poll by Republican firm Hodas & Associates, which also gave him 16 points in Wisconsin and 12 points in Pennsylvania.
Surveys published by the New York Times and Siena College put Biden by double digits in those states, with an 11-point lead in Michigan and Wisconsin and a 10-point lead in Pennsylvania, as well as a 9-point lead in North Carolina, an 8-point lead in Florida. and a 7-point lead in Arizona, all states that voted for Trump in 2016.
The Redfield and Wilton polls showed nearly identical results, with Biden leading by 11 points in Michigan, 10 points in Pennsylvania, 9 points in Wisconsin, 6 points in North Carolina, and 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, with third-party candidates Jo Jorgensen and Howie Hawkins never survey above the margin of error.
But Fox News’ typically Republican swing state polls yielded the most shocking results, with Biden ahead by 9 points in Florida, 2 points in North Carolina and Georgia, and 1 point in Texas, who voted for Trump by 8 points in 2016.
Key background
Trump has struggled to respond to several major crises that have plagued the United States in recent months. While it initially took a hit during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic in April and May, it quickly evaporated in June when protests swept the nation in response to the death of George Floyd. Trump’s approval rating on the RealClearPolitics average is underwater at 13 points, his lowest margin since the start of the Ukraine scandal, which led to his eventual removal.
Big number
37% Only 37% of Americans approve of how Trump has handled the coronavirus pandemic compared to 58% who disapprove of it, according to a new Reuters poll.
Key quote
“These are the worst 24 hours of voting in Trump’s entire political career,” CNN Politics journalist Chris Cillizza tweeted.
News Peg
Biden’s broad leadership in critical battlefield states, and the competitiveness of historically Republican states, forces Trump to change his strategy, which once included going after Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and New Mexico. His campaign has spent significant time in Arizona, with Trump and Vice President Mike Pence making recent visits. While Arizona has long been safe in Republican hands, it voted for Trump by just 4 points in 2016 and elected Democrat Kirsten Sinema to the U.S. Senate in 2018.
