Alabama posted this lowest weekly total for new cases of coronavirus in nearly two months this week, a continuation of an encouraging trend in the state’s fight against the virus. But an uptick in cases and deaths after the end of the week could be a sign of trouble, as schools and universities across the state have already begun the process of rebuilding.
The Alabama Department of Public Health reported 6,470 new virus cases between August 15 and 21, the lowest weekly total since the week ending June 26.
But even as the state’s virus numbers began to look a little better, the rolling average of 7 days for new cases began to grow again, increasing four days in a row. It is the first time that number has gone up for so many consecutive days since mid-July, when the state’s numbers were as high as ever.
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The number of deaths and hospitalizations due to the virus also appears to be on the decline this week, which perhaps confirms what we have seen in the state’s lower numbers since early August. But as is the case, deaths end at the end of the week.
The state reported 102 new virus stars for the week ending August 22. That’s the lowest weekly total since July 10 – but it was on course to be even lower until the end of the week. The 7-day average for reported deaths fell on Wednesday to 8.9 deaths per day – the first time it has fallen below 10 since July 1. But half of the reported deaths came this week on Thursday and Friday, pushing it 7-day average returns up to 14.6.
The state has now posted six consecutive weeks with at least 100 deaths – though those numbers of weeks are still an improvement over the previous month and a half or so. In Alabama, 1,927 people died from the virus, with 69 more likely to die.
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Weekly case numbers initially appeared even lower, as the state initially reported just 321 new cases Friday. But that figure was incomplete because many of the data problems that the state has been plaguing lately have persisted. The state posted a message on its coronavirus dashboard saying the data update, typically at 10 a.m., would be delayed. Instead, the state reported 1,183 new cases on Friday in a delayed release.
Alabama has confirmed 108,666 total cases this year, with nearly 5,000 additional probable cases. ADPH reported this week that nearly 45,000 virus patients are believed to have recovered.
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Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state, added the most virus cases this week at 856. That is the lowest weekly total in Jefferson since the week ending June 26th.
Mobile County finished second, with 606 new cases – less than half the total the week before.
You can see how many cases and deaths were reported this week in each province in the table below:
[Can’t see the table? Click here.]
Montgomery County added 366 new cases this week, the third most in the state. Tuscaloosa County finished fourth with 330 cases, and Madison County, home of Huntsville, finished the top five with 280 new cases.
The lower death toll and death rates reported in Alabama this week appear to be a positive sign, but there are still many questions. Is the uptick that began to appear in the numbers of the state the beginning of a new spike, or just a bump in the road?
Three days after the start of the semester at the University of Alabama, the school announced changes to activities on campus due to concerns about the virus. Photos showing colleges outside bars in Tuscaloosa made headlines this week, and the high school football season in Alabama kicked off Thursday, bringing crowds of often maskless people together in the stands. Workday is also fast approaching.
These are all things that could potentially limit the momentum that Alabama sees in its coronavirus numbers. Just how big an impact they will have, as one, will be told in the coming weeks.
Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Email Ramsey Archibald at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories over here.
