The reopening and relaxation of social distancing restrictions in some states may be contributing to the country’s first notable increase in deaths from coronavirus since April, when the pandemic peaked initially.
The number of cases in late June increased more than during the first peak of the outbreak. At the same time, Covid-19’s daily deaths decreased slightly, prompting President Trump to proclaim that the deaths were “very low.” But that divergence may have come to an end last week, when the average number of new deaths per day began to rise steadily again.
Where deaths have increased since June 1
Daily new deaths since June 1
States where deaths have increased since June 1
Daily new deaths since June 1, seven-day average
Note: Data as of July 15.
Public health experts have pointed out some factors that help explain why the death count was initially flat. Treatment has improved, and young people, who are less likely to die from Covid-19, account for a higher proportion of new cases.
Additionally, more generalized testing means that cases are detected earlier, on average. This means that the delay between diagnosis and death would be longer than in March, when the tests were very low.
That delay may have come to an end last week, as the number of new deaths began to increase. Many of the states that reopened early are the ones that experienced the biggest increases, while New York, the most affected city in the country, has seen a 64 percent drop since June 1.
Deaths in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut
Deaths in the rest of the United States
While the growth rate of new deaths has flattened slightly in recent days, the data suggests that the recent increase in deaths may continue. Most states experiencing the highest increase in deaths also have some of the highest positive test rates in the country, as well as rising hospitalization rates, an indicator that many more residents may be seriously ill.
Additionally, a large body of positive evidence probably indicates that there are more people whose infections go undetected in a state’s official numbers.
How the number of deaths per day has changed since June 1
| Arizona | 9.6 | + 319% | 500 | 25% | ||
| Texas | 3.3 | + 307% | 380 | sixteen% | ||
| Oregon | 0.8 | + 267% | 60 60 | 6% | ||
| Tennessee | two | + 252% | 190 | 8% | ||
| Idaho | 1.1 | + 225% | 80 | 13% | ||
| Florida | 4.4 | + 204% | 400 | 19% | ||
| Nevada | 3.1 | + 163% | 360 | 14% | ||
| Utah | 1.5 | + 113% | 80 | 9% | ||
| Alabama | 4.5 4.5 | + 91% | 280 | sixteen% | ||
| South Carolina | 3.3 | + 90% | 310 | 18% | ||
| Arkansas | 1.4 | + 88% | 150 | eleven% | ||
| Washington | 1.8 | + 60% | fifty | 6% | ||
| California | 2.4 | + 38% | 210 | 7% | ||
| Oklahoma | 0.9 | + 19% | 140 | 9% | ||
| Louisiana | 3.7 | + 10% | 290 | 10% | ||
| South Dakota | 2.1 | + 8% | 70 | 7% | ||
| Kansas | 0.8 | + 6% | – | eleven% | ||
| Mississippi | 4.9 | -two% | 370 | 17% | ||
| North Carolina | 1.8 | -10% | 110 | 7% | ||
| Kentucky | 1.1 | -19% | 100 | 6% | ||
| New Mexico | two | -29% | 80 | 4% | ||
| Georgia | 2.2 2.2 | -33% | 270 | fifteen% | ||
| Missouri | 1.2 | -43% | 140 | 6% | ||
| Virginia | 1.5 | -53% | 130 | 6% | ||
| Nebraska | 0.8 | -61% | 60 60 | 6% | ||
| Iowa | 1.7 | -61% | 60 60 | 9% | ||
| Ohio | one | -62% | 90 | 6% | ||
| New Jersey | 3.4 | -63% | 100 | one% | ||
| Maine | 0.4 0.4 | -64% | 10 | one% | ||
| Pennsylvania | 1.6 | -Sixty-five% | fifty | 5% | ||
| Indiana | 1.1 | -66% | 130 | 8% | ||
| Colorado | one | -70% | 70 | 6% | ||
| New York | 1.2 | -73% | 40 | one% | ||
| Maryland | 1.6 | -74% | 70 | 5% | ||
| Washington DC | 1.5 | -75% | 140 | two% | ||
| Michigan | one | -76% | fifty | 3% | ||
| New Hampshire | 0.9 | -77% | twenty | two% | ||
| Illinois | 1.3 | -78% | 110 | 3% | ||
| Minnesota | 0.9 | -79% | fifty | 4% | ||
| Wisconsin | 0.4 0.4 | -80% | fifty | 7% | ||
| Massachusetts | 2.6 | -80% | 80 | two% | ||
| Delaware | 0.9 | -83% | fifty | 5% | ||
| Connecticut | 1.5 | -83% | twenty | one% | ||
| Rhode Island | 2.2 2.2 | -86% | 60 60 | 3% |
Sources: New York Times database of state and local governments; the Covid-19 monitoring project
Note: Data is from July 15, 2020. The states listed above have a minimum of 100 cumulative deaths. Positive test rates are calculated using positive results from July 2-15. Trend lines and new deaths per million show seven-day average data.
Tracking the coronavirus
