The earliest division in football has spent even more months in recent months. The Texans traded their best player who was not named Deshaun Watson in the offseasons’ most second-guessing deal. The Titans backed out of the Tom Brady sweepstakes to concentrate on building an offense Derrick Henry en Ryan Tannehill. The Colts gave the giant of their young offense to a 38-year-old coming off a down season. And the once-promising Jaguars went from chasing to a playoff spot to positioning themselves for the No. 1 pick in 2021 draft.
Each team seems to be pulling back from disappointment in some way. Houston not only blew a 24-point playoff lead for the Chiefs, but also a chance to host the AFC Championship game. Tennessee fell, after raising the highly-favored Ravens, a week later to Kansas City, allowing him to coach Mike Vrabel to bypass all discussions about separating a body part. (Go ahead, look it up.) In Jacksonville, any sense of optimism that remained after a stunning run-up to the 2017 AFC title game has evaporated with so many top players making it to the exits. CB Jalen Ramsey forced a trade in the middle of last season, DE Yannick Ngakoue is trying to do the same this year, and CB AJ Bouye was sold to Denver this entire season.
It’s wild to consider that this division was a few plays from having its best two teams for the AFC title. And yet none of them, except Indianapolis, felt the need to improve markedly. Is anyone seriously slotting an AFC South team to make the Super Bowl ahead of the Chiefs, Patriots, Ravens or Steelers? Jawis, Tennessee signed Tannehill on a four-year $ 118 million expansion this offseason, but puts the idea of him at the helm – despite how historically efficient he was in the 12 regular season games he started in 2019 – sends shivers down his spine. del ‘spines? Does a misunderstanding by Watson inspire the same fear when he no longer targets DeAndre Hopkins and his insane catch radius?
The Colts are the division’s most fascinating team this year. While they have all the fundamental pieces to make a serious playoff push, signing off Philip Rivers, after 16 seasons with the Chargers, it could have been spectacularly good as unredemably terrible. Frank Reich is one of the best, most adaptable coaches in football, and he spent three years with Rivers in San Diego from 2013 to ’15. But can football smart and a history of shared success stop Rivers’ decline? At a time when mobility has become central to the quarterback position and the development of modern arrangements, Rivers is one of the league’s remaining throwbacks. He is coming off his worst season, with 20 interceptions and only 23 touchdowns. But he was also only a year removed from the rankings among the three best passers-by in the NFL, and at this point he has seen almost every schedule and diagnosed by every defensive coordinator in football.
You can see what the Colts thought when they signed him. Imagine if Rivers regains his not-so-long-ago form while he’s along with the talent pool of Indianapolis? Then the earliest division in football can have a surprise for everyone.
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
PROJECT RECORD: 10-6
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: Rivers shows off his old spark and acts like a sage game manager, finding young WRs Michael Pittman Jr. en Parris Campbell and giving the Colts an Eagles 2018 vibe, minus the mobility at quarterback. Marlon Mack and rookie of second round Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin became one of the top running tandems of NFL.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Rivers proves to be in the kind of decay that a good scheme cannot reverse, and the misconduct remains at best a neutral threat, while spoiling some major talent. The investment in DT DeForest Buckner does not scratch much. Indianapolis looks back with regret on the spring of 2020, when so many other, younger QBs were on the market.
TENNESSEE TITANS
PROJECT RECORD: 9-7
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith works wonders again. Wide receiver AJ Brown stays white-hot, while Henry continues to punish opponents and Tannehill builds on his breakout season, earning every dollar of his new contract. Smith is on the wish list of any team that needs a coach.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The toll of last year’s hard work pressure shows up on Henry, whose terrible time division comes after the Titans gave him a four-year, $ 50 million contract extension with $ 25.5 million guaranteed in July. To kick off their run game, the Titans turn to third-round Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State), which is not ready for a function role.
HOUSTON TEXANS
PROJECT RECORD: 7-9
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: The Hopkins deal, like the 2019 Jadeveon Clowney deal, is not proving to be as disastrous as critics thought; the combination of Sil Fuller plus newly acquired WRs Brandin Cooks en Randall Cobb keeps clicking the passing game. RB David Johnson, picked up by the Cardinals as part of the Hopkins deal, wins its 2016 All-Pro form again.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: While Hopkins flourishes in Arizona, the Texans stumble, and Watson grows unhappy. It does not help that the young players on the offensive line do not show the necessary development. The internal divisions are deepening in Houston. The disappointing finish does not disappoint coach Bill O’Brien, but as a general manager he has to make repairs – fast.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
PROJECT RECORD: 2-14
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: Gardner Minshew develops into a reliable quarterback, and WR Laviska Shenault proves to be a bargain for second round. Despite being just an average record, the Jaguars are coming out of the season well enough over their foundation to generously pay free agents in 2021 and follow a run at the division next year.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: RB Leonard Fournette does not rally in his contract year, still marks a disappointing result from a previous pick in the first round. After Ramsey crashed his way off the roster last season, Ngakoue is replicating the routine. Coach Doug Marrone can not pull the locker room together and the franchise sinks into unrest.
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