Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia, recently moved seven traditional Republican fortresses – Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah – to the list of possible competitive presidential elections. Last week, Cook moved Florida, traditionally the nation’s largest battlefield award, from a move to favor Mr. Biden.
Well, it would be negligent if I ignored the very obvious caveat of all of these predictions. Of course, the choice is far from over. AND Of course, The dynamics could change. (In The Atlantic, Peter Nicholas does a good job exposing some of the factors that could reduce Trump’s favor. The problems with the vote are certainly worth it.)
However, Trump’s advisers don’t seem to have a big plan to change the current trajectory. In this perilous moment, his campaign is becoming a logic invoked by eager Democrats – but 2016!
In a briefing with reporters on Friday, Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, argued that much of the poll data was flawed, showing slide after slide of the poll from four years ago that predicted that Hillary Clinton would win.
“These trends will go unnoticed until Election Night, when we are right and wrong,” said Stepien.
Other Republicans believe they can still change the race. They are buoyed by the president’s more sober tone last week and the decision to cancel the Republican National Convention in Florida, an event that certainly would have led to weeks of negative media coverage and possibly another wave of infections in one of the more affected by the pandemic
“There is a long way to go. Trump’s numbers have obviously come down, but they are coming back, “said Scott Reed, chief strategist at the United States Chamber of Commerce and longtime Republican strategist.” This will be a tight race at the end of the day. “
