A record 75% of Americans could vote by mail in 2020

About three-quarters of all U.S. voters will be eligible to vote in the run-up to the 2020 election – the most in U.S. history, according to an analysis by the New York Times. If recent election trends continue and turnout increases, as experts predict, roughly 80 million email ballots will flood this fall, more than double the number that returned in 2016.

The rapid and seismic shift in how Americans will vote can be traced back to the coronavirus pandemic. Concerns about the potential for virus transmission at polling stations have forced many states to make flight adjustments that – despite President Trump’s protests – make this vote more accessible in America than ever before.

“I have a hard time looking back at history and finding an election where this was important from a change in the way elections are administered in this short period of time,” said Alex Padilla, the Secretary of State in California, who chairs the Democratic Union of Secretaries of State.

Most of the changes are temporary and have been made administratively by state and local officials who have the power to make adjustments during emergencies such as the pandemic.

Several of the states that have made changes to the primaries are holding them in place for the general election, while others are making separate tweaks for the fall. A small handful of states have not made any adjustments and appear unlikely to do so.

Over all, 24 states and the District of Columbia have somehow expanded access for voters to post ballots for the 2020 general election, with the broad goal of making it easier for people to vote in the midst of a global health crisis. And in some states that keep relatively strict rules, individual counties have made similar efforts.

Several new pieces of state legislation are also still pending, and experts say more changes could come through executive action, legal action or other mechanisms in a few states, including New York.

But they also note that many Americans who choose to vote this cycle through the mail because of the virus will simply use options that are already available to them under existing laws.

More post votes, higher turnout

During the presidential election, many states that made it easier for people to vote by post saw higher turnout than states that made fewer changes.

Of the states that held presidential primaries and caucuses this year, 31 saw an increase in increase compared to 2016. Of those, 18 votes or voting applications had been sent to all voters ahead of the primaries.

Six states required voters to have a different excuse than the virus to vote absent in the primaries. In those states, voter turnout remained about the same as in 2016.

Michael P. McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who studies U.S. elections, said recent election trends, including many of this year’s primaries, have indicated that turnout in the fall will be comparable to 2016, and that the widespread use of postal voting will shake previous records.

“It’s kind of thirty to say you’ll have the highest turnout percentage of your life, or this is the most important election of your life, but it really feels that way,” he said. “I still expect this to have a very high turnout in November. The crucial question we have is simply: will the electoral system be able to bear that? ‘

Indeed, the primaries have also exposed the myriad problems that election officials and voters could face this fall.

In Wisconsin, 11-hour court decisions, long lines at polling stations, a backlog of absentee ballots and complaints about missing or nullified e-mail ballots are pushing the system to the brink of collapse. In Georgia’s most populous province, voters were hit by an election meltdown rife with their own intrusive lines and faulty technology. And in New York, it took several weeks for overwhelming officials to count thousands of postal votes and deliver results.

For some time now, Mr. Trump has been fiercely critical of postal voting – while he should have allowed military members and older Americans to vote absent – and said sending ballot papers to voters would directly compromise the integrity of the election. More broadly, some Republicans continue to insist without proof that voting by post helps Democrats.

Mail voting is unevenly spread across some partisan lines: Several of the states identified by The Cook Political Report as solid or likely Democratic in the 2020 general election have implemented some of the most comprehensive post-voting programs; many of the states identified as solid as likely Republicans have continued to restrict access to voting posts.

Studies have shown several times that voting fraud of this kind is extremely rare in the United States. And states and counties that have moved to vote via email have not seen much evidence of partisan advantage.

Potential problems in November

Researchers said thin-walled polling stations could be quickly overwhelmed by the volume of emails. To help reduce their burden, election officials in several key states have already called for lawmakers to give them more leeway to count absentee ballots, as they arrive instead of after the polls close.

Their problems could be supplemented by a lack of funding for the Postal Service. If there are delays in polling stations like post offices, experts said, ballots may not be sent on time or returned by postmark dates.

Richard L. Hasen, a professor of law and political science at the University of California, Irvine, said he remained “deeply concerned” that voters’ scores would not be denied through no fault of their own. Because many voters are unfamiliar with the process of voting for mail, he and other experts said they were concerned that voters could make unintentional technical errors in marking, signing, closing or sending a ballot, causing them to votes will eventually be rejected.

And those who vote personally may have to face a shortage of polls that viewers say are likely to be exacerbated by the pandemic.

“It’s going to be bumpy,” said Amber McReynolds, chief executive of the National Voice at Home Institute and Coalition. ‘Will it be a disaster in a particular state? That’s hard to tell at the moment. ”

Well-prepared states that are accustomed to counting a large number of postal votes – and where the presidential race is not close – could be called upon on election night. But experts say that in other states, counting could delay race calls for at least a day or two. And in states where presidential competition is tight and laws are inflexible, a clear picture of who won could take weeks to develop.

Despite the challenges, Phil Keisling, who was Oregon’s secretary of state when it began sending votes to voters more than two decades ago, was among more than half a dozen experts who believe election officials are getting their job done. soene.

“Tens of millions of people are sitting in terra incognita elections, and so there is fear, and it is understandable,” Mr Keisling said. “But I’m upbeat optimistic that we’ll hold an election that meets very high professional standards, and that the vast majority of Americans, even if they do not like the results, will believe that the results are fair.”