Don’t expect much positive touchdown regression for Leonard Fournette in 2020
Even if you’re lucky enough to make your first overall pick in your draft and surround yourself with the great security blanket called Christian McCaffrey, you, like everyone else, will inevitably face the difficult choice of considering players whose risk is just as great as your reward. Missing the postseason or winning a title summarizes the range of results that will result from your choices on draft day. Since you (obviously) prefer the latter, it would be wise to exercise caution when it comes to athletes that our featured experts would rather avoid due to their extreme risk. Read below to see who the experts will enthusiastically stream to and who they would like to grab instead. Also be on the lookout for some conflicting opinions about Austin Ekeler and Allen Robinson.
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Q1. Which RB comes with the highest risk and which player (s) would you rather recruit with a lower ADP in their position?
Leonard Fournette (JAC): ADP – 29th overall | RB14
“Fournette was unlucky to score three touchdowns on 341 touches last year, but what score will she score in 2020 for a team Las Vegas is projecting to win five games with the league low? There is no chance that Fournette repeat last season’s 100 goals, and that total could well be cut in half. He also plays behind a bad offensive line. RB14’s Fournette’s ADP is too rich, and I’d rather have pristine rookie prospect Jonathan Taylor, who is 10 places lower on the board in RB24 “.
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The soccer girl)
“Leonard Fournette It’s just not going to explode and I wish people would stop thinking about this. Although he finally played a full season last year, the lack of touchdowns was an issue. There could be an increase in Fournette’s pay department, but I don’t think the Jags’ offense is good enough to get him into the red zone on a regular basis. Even with a history of knee arthritis, I think there is a revival of Todd Gurley and I think he is still a much better option than Fournette for a lower price. “
– Matthew Bowe (Razzball)
Austin Ekeler (LAC): ADP – 23rd overall | RB13
“Ekeler presents the greatest risk as someone who is not a runner to his team and one whose offense will lose more than 100 pass attempts this season, lowering his fantasy floor. Did you know that 73.5 percent of Ekeler’s points come from receive in 2019? No other rider in the top 20 was above 48.8 percent. I’d rather take Clyde Edwards-Helaire and its top five at the current price. “
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Aaron Jones (GB): ADP – 15th overall | RB10
“In addition to injury-ridden Todd Gurley, David Johnson, James Conner and Derrius Guice, Jones in his current ADP is at the highest risk for me. There’s no denying his talent, but even the best will have a hard time repeating or even approaching 19 touchdowns in a single season. Gurley was the most recent to do so with 21 and 19 consecutive scoring seasons. Before that, you have to go back to the days of LaDanian Tomlinson or Marshall Faulk when they put in ridiculous numbers to figure out in consecutive seasons. Even without natural regression taking effect here, it doesn’t help that the Packers recruited a running back puncher at AJ Dillon to probably take a lot of short-yard and goal-line work off Jones. I’m happy to have Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake and Miles Sanders in front of him right now. “
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Nick Chubb (CLE): ADP – 12th overall | RB8
“I think Chubb is at great risk with his current ADP because he was a different fantasy player when Kareem Hunt was in the lineup last year. Chubb averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game with no hunt in the lineup. When Hunt returned from suspension in week 10, Chubb averaged 13 fantasy points per game. He had less than 10 fantasy points four times with Hunt reducing his workload. This year, Hunt will be in the mix from day one, which is a concern. I prefer to take Kenyan Drake, a player with a huge ceiling. He has almost no competition for the job, plays in an explosive offense and is a three-loss runner. “
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
Q2 Which WR comes with the highest risk and which player (s) would you rather recruit with a lower ADP in their position?
Amari Cooper (DAL): ADP – 26th overall | WR9
“I feel like every year is the same answer for me and it won’t change until I prove to be a different player. That player is Amari Cooper. I get the roof he provides weekly, I do. She had some spectacular games in 2019 scoring 34.1, 23.8, and 26.2 points in three of her games. Those are great, but what about the games where he scored 7.3, 2.4, 4.4, 5.3 and 0 points? That’s right … zero points. She scored 19.6+ points in four weeks last year, which represented 103.7 of her points or 50.09%. So she scored half of her points in a quarter of her games, leaving you with an average of 8.6 in the others. He is too inconsistent for me to take it as WR1. Give me Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Odell Beckham, or even JuJu Smith-Schuster along with a few others ahead of Cooper. “
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Kenny Golladay (DET): ADP – 24th overall | WR7
“I think Golladay is a good soccer player, but also one who runs too much risk to be selected in the second round. 2019 ended with just 65 receptions. The only other player to finish as a top 20 receiver with less than 67 receptions was AJ Brown, who we know must see a huge increase in volume to live up to his current ADP. That is possible given how young he is. But as for Golladay, he’s probably cemented in his role, which is to be the best No. 1 scorer on his team, but that hasn’t given him 120 goals in a single season yet, and that’s with Marvin Jones wasting a lot of time. The last two years. I prefer to have JuJu Smith-Schuster, who will go almost two full rounds later. “
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Courtland Sutton (DEN): ADP – 42nd overall | WR16
“I have no questions about Sutton’s ability. I have important questions about how you will make a profit on a WR16 ADP. The two biggest concerns: (1) whether inexperienced quarterback Drew Lock can handle a high-end WR2 season for Sutton, and (2) whether Sutton faces a potential tight spot on the target with the arrival of rookie catchers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. If Lock crashes and burns, Sutton’s numbers will be well below expectations, and a debuted debut for Jeudy could be almost as ruinous for Sutton’s value. I’d rather bet on a JuJu Smth-Schuster recovery season on his WR18 ADP than sail against Sutton. “
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The soccer girl)
Mike Evans (TB): ADP – 25th overall | WR8
“With Tom Brady taking the photos in Tampa, I think Evans is a big risk. When he had great weeks in the past, he did a lot of damage on the field and Brady obviously doesn’t have the arm that Winston does. Tampa will be a much more balanced offense with a lot of work underneath Chris Godwin and there is a factor of familiarity with Rob Gronkowski. There are few options safer than Allen Robinson, who quietly had a stellar season in Chicago in 2019. He’ll be fine with Mitch Trubisky, but if Nick Foles wins the job, Robinson could be even better. “
– Matthew Bowe (Razzball)
Allen Robinson (CHI): ADP – 27th overall | WR10
“I am not buying Robinson’s hype. I just don’t trust him with Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky throwing passes at him. You will have a hard time matching your numbers from last year. I prefer to have AJ Brown or DJ Moore. Brown didn’t have a ton of catches last year, but he still had a large number. You can improve with just a few more goals. Also, Moore had a great season last year with a shaky quarterback game. Teddy Bridgewater, who some think is negative, should be positive for Moore if you look at who threw passes to him last season. ”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
Thanks to the experts for giving us your high risk players. Be sure to follow them up on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice throughout the year.
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