With COVID-19 cases on the rise nationwide, Americans by almost a two-to-one margin are suspicious of what President Donald Trump says about the pandemic, and six in 10 in a new ABC News / Washington poll. Post disapprove of how he is handling it, since the first days of the outbreak.
Only 38% in the national poll now approve of Trump’s response, up from 46% in late May and a limited majority, 51%, in late March, a 13-point drop. Disapproval gained 15% in the same period, to 60%.
Check the PDF for complete results, charts and tables.
Among Trump’s challenges is his credibility on the matter in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. Only 34% of Americans trust a lot or a fair amount of trust in what it says about COVID-19, while 64% trust it not as much or, in the case of almost half the public, not at all.
There is also a disconnect in terms of priorities, with Americans at 63-33%, saying it is more important to control the spread of the virus than to restart the economy, a goal Trump has emphasized. That 30-point preference for controlling the differential expanded from 20 points in late May.
Concern about contracting the disease, on the other hand, remains persistently high. Sixty-six percent are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their immediate family may become infected, and an additional 5% of Americans now say this has already happened.
More expensive
In terms of protective action, 79% say they wear a mask all or most of the time when they are around other people outside their home. Fewer, 57%, say they do it all the time without exception.
Trust in Trump, and political views in general, interact with this behavior. Among people who generally trust what the president says on the subject, 41% say they always wear a mask with other people. That jumps to 66% among those who generally don’t trust him.
In strictly partisan terms, 38% of Republicans and those who favor Republicans report that they always wear a mask when they are around others outside of their home; This nearly doubles, to 70%, between Democrats and Democratic-minded independents.
Among other factors, always wearing a mask is also associated with ideology (it is 71% among liberals, while 38% among very conservative adults); age (42% among young people between 18 and 29 years old vs. 61% between 30 and older); and race (about 20 points less among whites than among blacks or Hispanics). It is also 20 points lower in rural areas compared to cities.
The most surprising thing is that wearing a mask is associated with the worry of becoming infected. Always using one varies from 81% among people who are very concerned about contracting the virus to 22% among those who are not at all concerned. That suggests that the barrier to mask use, widely urged by public health officials, is not the lack of confidence that they work, but the level of public doubt that the situation is threatening enough to warrant it.
Another potential factor, state orders to wear masks, shows a more modest effect. In states where such orders were in effect as of Sunday, when the interviews for this survey began, 60% say they always wear masks, compared to 51% in states that don’t have those orders.
A statistical analysis called regression, which keeps all available factors constant, finds that concern about contracting the virus is by far the strongest predictor of wearing a mask. Other factors include being conservative and living in a rural area, both negative predictors of mask use; and, as positive predictors, age, education, strongly prioritizing control of the spread of the virus, living in a state with a mask mandate, living in counties with the highest per capita cases, and being female.
Concern
Being concerned about contracting the virus is associated with partisanship and ideology, and, perhaps surprisingly, not strongly related to the number of cases in one’s state or county. Eighty percent of Democrats and Democrat-trending independents are concerned about infection, compared to 50% of Republicans and Republican-trending independents. The gap is similar between liberals and those who are very conservative, 82% vs. 48%, with moderates in between.
Concern is also higher among Hispanics (78%) and blacks (74%), compared to 61% among whites.
Concern about virus capture tends to be lowest in counties with the fewest cases, or the least recent growth in cases, either overall or per capita, in quartiles.
Triumph
Trump’s approval of the handling of the situation and confidence in what he says about it, are again very partisan. His approval rating for handling the pandemic is 79% among Republicans, but 39% among independents and only 4% among Democrats. Since the end of March, he lost 21 points in passing the issue among Democrats, while losing 9 points between independents and Republicans alike.
Trump’s rating has lost 15-16 points since the end of March in the Midwest, South, and West alike, while essentially unchanged in the Northeast, where it began to drop. Notably, too, although he is better rated in rural areas, albeit with only 48% approval, he lost 23 points there, as well as 16 points in suburban areas and 9 points in urban centers.
In an especially wide gap, Trump’s performance gains approval from 78% of those who prioritize restarting the economy, while plummeting to 17% of those who say it is more important to control the spread of the virus.
Indeed, in a regression, views on controlling the spread of the virus versus the reboot of the economy are the strongest independent predictor of views on Trump’s handling of the situation (with a strong preference for controlling the spread that negatively predicts their performance). The next strongest factors are being Republicans and Conservatives, both associated with Trump’s approval; and being concerned about contracting the coronavirus and being a Democrat, both of which are negative predictors. Education and being a black person are also significant negative predictors.
Confidence in what the president says is also heavily influenced by partisanship. It is 71% among Republicans, lower than their typical overall approval ratings within the party, falling to 30% among independents and 6% of Democrats. Among other factors, confidence in the president is lower, 24%, in counties with the most COVID-19 cases per capita, though not high in other counties, 37%.
Methodology
This ABC News / Washington Post survey was conducted by landline and cell phone from July 12 to 15, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Results have a sampling point margin of error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. The partisan divisions are 30-24-39%, Democrat-Republican-Independent.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York City, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey methodology here.
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