Every summer, a handful of running backs are hyped and end up too high in fantasy football designs. I’m about to pour all cold water. I am not saying that the running backs on this list cannot be fantasy factors. I just can not justify where they will be set up in mid-August.
So without further ado, here are the five most valued running backs in midpoint PPR formats based on our ADP Consensus tool.
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Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI)
Current ADP: No. 22 in general, RB11
Could I hold a grudge against Kenyan Drake for ‘breaking out’, a year after I had him in many leagues? Maybe. But I rarely buy high from a second half breakout. And that’s exactly what a lot of fantasy players do when they take Drake in the back-end of Round 2.
Sure, if you add Drake’s stats after he’s traded to Arizona, it looks gorgeous. He rushed for 643 yards, grabbed 28 passes for 171 yards, scored eight touchdowns, and ranked as the RB4 from weeks 9-17. But let’s dig a little deeper through the score of the box. Drake grabbed 413 of that yard and scored seven of his eight touchdowns in just three games.
Drake is by no means a bad player, and he’s actually pretty fast and has good hands. But he is currently drafted with little room for error and would have to provide low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 value for this pick to pay.
It wasn’t long ago that Drake was praised as a potential breakout. In a Cardinals crime that could be just as changeable as it is exciting, I will not take the ace for this prize.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Current ADP: No. 21 in general, RB12
I have written so much about Miles Sanders that I am afraid he may take it personally. Although I’m sure he’s a great guy, I can not bring myself to set him this high.
Yes, I know he’s really fast. Yes, I know he’s a good passer and can play all three downs. Yes, I’m aware that he ended his rookie season with finishes like the RB11 from Weeks 9-17.
These are all exciting factors in his favor, but they do not guarantee consideration of Round 2 for me. I have to see that Sanders’ amazing athleticism matches a better vision and a better ability to find the cutting edge. I also want to see Eagles coach Doug Pederson dedicate himself to a full season runback, something we did not see during his tenure at Philly.
It’s easy to get excited about Sanders because of his raw talent, strong finish after 2019, and the lack of legitimate threats behind him. But I’m afraid too many people will weigh Sanders on their rankings because they assume Boston Scott or Corey Clement or any random man that Pederson falls in love with will not be on a single factor.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Current ADP: No. 51 in general, RB23
In dynasty leagues, I fully predict one of the most productive players in the history of high school football. In redraft leagues, I pumped the brakes a bit on Taylor as an early fifth-round pick.
Overall, I’m more hesitant to take shots at the top rookies in 2020, given the league’s shortened offseason. This is especially true in cases like Taylor’s, where there is already a solid official.
The lack of a full training camp and the elimination of precision games makes me think it will be harder for rookies to see the field early in the season. In a season full of uncertainties, I could see Colts coach Frank Reich rely on Marlon Mack through the first half of the season.
And even if Mack and Taylor split the choices right away, I’m still worried that Taylor will not contribute enough in the passing game to be a constant threat.
Taylor should be a stud, and he will eventually occupy the starting job in Indy. But his path to full-time work is currently too muddled for me to take the chance in Round 5. I would rather wait to target Taylor in the midseason trade if the situation disappears as I expect.
Sony Michel (RB – NE)
Current ADP: No. 82 in general, RB30
I do not touch Sony Michel with a 10 foot pole, let alone spend a seventh round on it. In fact, I would not take a shot at him until the bilingual rounds.
What exactly is there to do with Michel? He lost Tom Brady as his quarterback. He’s just another cog in New England’s run by commission machine that has him, James White, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris, and the newly signed Lamar Miller. Oh, and he’s already on the PUP list after undergoing offseason foot surgery, and his status for Week 1 is in doubt. Otherwise, he is great.
The only good thing I can say about Michel is that he scored 13 touchdowns in two seasons. But touchdowns are random, and he does not do much else that guarantees that he will be ranked as a top-3o running back.
Let the man who still believes Michel can shake the ghosts out of his career in Georgia make the mistake of setting him this height.
Ronald Jones (RB – TB)
Current ADP: No. 90 in general, RB33
“RoJo is the most important man; he will carry the charge. ”
This quote from Bruce Arians on August 5 will probably be in the minds of drafters this summer. And I have a feeling RoJo’s shareholder will grow as the month goes on. But I do not buy the hype.
As he enters year 3 of his professional career, Jones has failed to put it all together. It’s fair to doubt whether he got an honest shock given his talent, but it wouldn ‘t be that hard to beat Peyton Barber, would it?
I think I do not take Arians at his word. The Bucs signed Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round of the draft, and then they signed a likely track record LeSean McCoy a week before Arians claimed Jones was “the main character.” Saying is nothing but doing is one thing. Even if Jones starts week 1, I imagine there will be a healthy mix of McCoy and maybe Vaughn. I also do not think Jones will get a long belt.
Could Jones serve as Brady’s Florida version of LeGarrette Blount? Wis. But there’s just the chance he’s the ‘main character’ in a Tampa Bay timeshare.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at FantasyPros. See for more on Matt archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.
