The 2020 NHL playoffs roll through to the semifinals of the conference beginning Saturday, with the Colorado Avalanche taking over the Dallas Stars.
Tampa Bay won three of four matchups in the regular season against Boston, as well as their game in the round-robin portion of the postseason. Will the Bruins reverse that trend in this series?
Note: Advanced stats are from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
More: Watch the full NHL postseason schedule here.
What we learned in the first round: If the Lightning were to make a run this summer, they would first have to defend some demons. Tampa Bay came back in the first round in the first round against John Tortorella’s forward-facing Columbus Blue Jackets and pulled away this time, gaining momentum from a five-overtime Game 1 victory. Tampa Bay did it all without Steven Stamkos, who is sidelined due to injury. The Lightning flexed its overall grid depth, although Stamkos’ absence was difficult.
The Bruins sleepwalk through the round robin, fell all the way from the no. 1 to the no. 4-seed and left many wondering if they could collect urgency this summer. Spoiler: They could. Goalkeeper Tuukka Rask let the bubble run to tackle family matters, but his teammates advised against the Carolina Hurricanes, a team Zdeno Chara praised as “well coached” with “a dangerous lineup.” David Pastrnak missed most of the series, but experienced veterinarians such as Brad Marchand and David Krejci more than compensated.
First line: Pastrnak came back in Game 5 versus the Canes, which means the Perfection Line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand is back intact. Pastrnak appears to be a full-fledged gong, leading Boston forward in the ice age (20:28 per game) and shooting five shots on the net back in his first game. Without Stamkos, Lightning Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat roll to the top. Point (five goals, five assists in eight games, including two wins of superiority) is with a great postseason. But perhaps it is here where we mention that although the Lightning generates many opportunities with high danger, they have a hard time completing them. They just scored eight goals through eight games and scored more than three goals just once. They could get through Columbus without Stamkos, but it will get harder in this series. Advantage: Bruins
Depth: Boston’s second line of Jake DeBrusk, Krejci and Ondrej Kase sucks, drives possession and provides Grade-A opportunities. The third line, anchored by Charlie Coyle (66% expected goals against Carolina) is also strong, but there is a drop-off after all. The second line of Tampa Bay, centered by Anthony Cirelli, does not produce at its best, but the third line with Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow and Yanni Gourde plays great hockey. You’ll hear a lot about how GM Julien BriseBois boosted his lead with gray through the additions of Coleman and Goodrow at the trade date and Patrick Maroon last summer. The fourth line of Tampa Bay also has a significant edge over Boston’s. Advantage: Lightning
Defense: This postseason has been a bit of a revelation for Zach Bogosian, who has returned to his career in Tampa Bay, thanks in part to a great assignment to play alongside Norris Trophy nominee Victor Hedman. Hedman was an absolute force in the Carolina series. The two couplings behind them are extremely solid. In Boston, Charlie McAvoy claims himself as a top defender in this league. In a sign of the times, he carries the weight on his coupling with Zdeno Chara. It’s hard to find too many mistakes in Boston’s top six, and keep an eye on Matt Grzelcyk, who is taking on more and more responsibility. Advantage: Band
Goal Tending: With Rask out, Jaroslav Halak takes over no. 1-duties. In the past two seasons (66 starts), Halak has averaged a .921 save percentage and 12.4 goals scored. The Bruins have total confidence in the 35-year-old Halak. The problem is workload, especially with two back-to-backs baked into the scheme. The backup is 23-year-old Dan Vladar, who has never played an NHL game. In Tampa Bay, you know what you’re getting from Andrei Vasilevskiy, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner who is up for the award this season. Vasilevskiy has a .923 saving percentage on equal strength this postseason. Advantage: Lightning
Coaching: Bruce Cassidy is a Jack Adams nominee for leading the Bruins to a Presidents’ Trophy (they were the only team to score 100 points before the break). In his second stint as an NHL coach, Cassidy became wiser and knew all the right buttons to hit with this group. Jon Cooper has also had great success in the regular season with Tampa Bay during his tenure, but until this team can get over the hump in the offseason, that will be a mark against him. Advantage: Bruins
Special teams: On paper, these two have almost identical postseason statistics. The 13.3% of Tampa Bay on the power play is disappointing considering the Lightning (like Boston) were a top-five team with a man advantage in the regular season. Not too much harp about the lack of Stamkos, but his presence would certainly give an impetus here. Boston’s 17.9% on power play is a big advantage, although the Bruins are a little behind on the penalty kill (85.7% after Tampa Bay’s 87.1%). Advantage: Bruins
Prediction: Browns in sand. This is a clash between the top two teams in the Eastern Conference this season, and hockey fans are in for a treat. While we expect tight, tough controversial field battles, the Bruins seem to be clicking at just the right time to avenge their loss of the second round of 2018.
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