Whether President Trump wins or loses reelection in November, there will likely be an open race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
But when that Republican battle begins in earnest, and how the field of contenders is formed, will depend on the results of the 2020 presidential election.
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If the president wins a second term in the White House, the surge of Republicans hoping to succeed him will likely wait until after the 2022 midterm elections. But if Trump loses in November, longtime Republican consultant Dave Carney says that “it’s easier for more people to apply and it will be a free fight immediately.”
Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, also emphasized that “there will be different groups” of contenders depending on whether Trump wins or is defeated in November.
Also likely to have an impact if the president loses this year is the margin of his defeat, and how active Trump would remain in full view of the public and within the Republican Party.
The 2024 race will be more than a nomination contest – it will also be a battle to shape the Republican Party in the future.
Veteran Republican strategist Colin Reed noted that “every time the Trump era comes to an end, whether next year or five years from now, the Republican Party will go through a period of discussion and debate about the party’s future direction” .
Will Republican primary voters long for a house cleanup or will they seek more of the same?
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One thing is for sure: the competition has already started.
While the names will change in the coming years, here is a list (in no particular order) of some potential and potential candidates for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination that are currently on the minds of the Republican strategists who spoke to Fox News.
Vice President Mike Pence – The former Indiana governor and congressman has something that no other likely or potential contender can match: the title of vice president.
Nikki Haley – There has been much speculation about the former Governor of South Carolina who served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – The former Kansas congressman, who served as Trump’s CIA director before becoming America’s top diplomat, has quietly approached conservative leaders and donors.
Governor Ron DeSantis – Florida’s first conservative and populist governor is a strong ally and supporter of the president, who has earned Trump’s praise.
Sen. Tom Cotton – The Iraq war veteran who served a term as an Arkansas congressman before winning the 2014 Senate election recently grabbed the headlines and won applause from conservatives for attacking China for the coronavirus and for a recent op-ed. controversial for The New York Times.
Senator Rick Scott – The two-term Florida billionaire former Florida governor who was elected to the Senate in 2018 came up with announcements in Iowa during committees earlier this year that shattered Trump’s impeachment and shut down former Vice President Joe Biden.
Senator Josh Hawley – The former Missouri attorney general, who at 40 is the youngest member of the Senate, is seen by some as a rising star after surprising conservative pundits with his speeches and the legislation he has pushed through his tenure until now on Capitol Hill.
Senator Ted Cruz The conservative Texas brand of fire, which was a finalist for Trump in the 2016 nomination battle, is considered a highly likely contender for 2024.
Senator Marco Rubio – The Florida senior senator, who also ran for the 2016 nomination, has publicly stated that he is potentially interested in running for president again.
Governor Larry Hogan – The two-term Republican governor of the blue state of Maryland definitely did not rule out a White House nomination for 2024 when he visited New Hampshire’s first presidential primary state last year. The more moderate Hogan would probably run in the mold of a Republican from John McCain or Mitt Romney.
John Kasich – The former congressman, two-term Ohio governor and 2016 Republican presidential candidate who is a critical critic of Trump flirted with a major 2020 challenge against the president. He told Fox News last November that a 2024 run was still a “possibility.”
Donald Trump Jr. – Could the President’s eldest son be his apparent heir? While that remains to be seen, he is a partisan warrior who has been a tireless rock star on the campaign trail for his father and conservatives on the ballot.
President Trump – Donald Jr. may have to wait. If the president loses reelection in November, there is nothing stopping him from running again in 2024. President Grover Cleveland accomplished the feat in 1892 after losing his reelection nomination four years earlier. While Presidents Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush quickly lost influence within their parties after suffering reelection defeats, Trump is unlikely to suffer the same fate, unless he loses in a crushing crush.
Others to keep your eyes on: Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Representatives Dan Crenshaw and Will Hurd of Texas, Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, President of the Republican House Conference, and Representative Elise Stefanik of New York.
