For once, the first practice showed an exact reflection of what should be followed in the qualification. In both sessions, two Mercedes led two race points.
Interestingly, both teams chose to qualify on the medium compound tires. Mercedes could probably have run them in Q3 and still swept the front row of the grid. In the case of Racing Point, executing them in Q2 was the kind of decision that seemed wise in hindsight but silly at the time: both drivers were worryingly close to being eliminated.
Last year, the top five drivers on the grid started on medium tires. In a two-horse race against pole winner Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton made an additional pit stop, changing difficulties halfway, and successfully overtook Red Bull to win.
We are likely to see a two-horse race between Mercedes drivers on Sunday, assuming they both make it to the first lap unscathed, as Valtteri Bottas did not do so last year.
Hamilton’s career in 2019 demonstrated how different strategies can create opportunities to earn places on a track where overtaking is normally very difficult. Sebastian Vettel did, too: he ran a long first season and switched to soft tires by the end of the race, and dived past Charles Leclerc to take last place on the podium with three laps to go.
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Could any of those scenarios point to ways Bottas could bring the fight to Hamilton? Team principal Toto Wolff poured cold water on that suggestion after qualifying, indicating that the team will not risk jeopardizing its advantage over its rivals at this early stage of the season, even with a performance advantage. apparently so big.
“We are in the third race weekend, there are probably 15 more to go and it would not take it easily,” he said. “I don’t want to make a decision here that could be negligent and throw valuable points and find myself in a position where Red Bull comes back strong at the end of the season and we’ve been a bit silly and accommodating.”
“So, in that sense, I am not saying no to alternative race strategies, I am not sure I want to implement this in Hungary, but we are certainly going to discuss it with the drivers and within the engineering community.
“Just to reassure you, it is already something that we discussed in Austria with the drivers and we feel that it is a positive contribution to Formula 1. Therefore, we could make a decision, but it will be a well thought-out decision.”
But if Mercedes’ performance advantage in the race is even half of what it was in qualifying, they could find themselves with a pit stop over their mid-race rivals. In that scenario, the temptation for a team to try a different strategy will be strong. As demonstrated last year, if the chasing driver is close enough, then as soon as they meet, it will be impossible for the lead driver to cover them, and the die is cast.
Behind them, the race will be an interesting test of the speed and defensive skills of the two Racing Point drivers, particularly early in the race. The immediate threat will come from the two Ferrari drivers on soft tires.
Leclerc and Vettel will be aware that splitting the pink cars in the beginning may be their best chance to beat them. Of course, they will be equally aware of the need to avoid any repeat of their collision last week. Leclerc especially …
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Can anything stop Mercedes drivers in Hungary? Who do you think will take the final podium?
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2020 Hungarian Grand Prix
See all the articles of the Hungarian Grand Prix 2020
