A look at history reveals that while Biden is clearly the favorite, his victory is not assured in an unprecedented election.
1. This is the rare choice, not about the economy.
The fact that the coronavirus is playing such an important role in voters’ perceptions of Biden, Trump, and the presidential race means that, for now, Trump is in big trouble. But it also means that if the coronavirus image changes for the better in November, Trump could return.
2. That said, Trump’s approval rating is really bad
As a group, presidents (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George HW Bush) who were not elected to a second term look eerily similar to Trump. His average net approval rating was -13 points.
Trump’s net approval rating doesn’t come close to the average president who got another term, +23 points.
3. A Trump victory is still within the margin of error
Biden has risen from eight points (including all surveys) to 12 points (live interview surveys only) in the national average, depending on how you calculate it. That is a considerable advantage.
If you look at the polls 100 days after each election involving an incumbent since 1940, the average difference between the polls at this time and the result has been 10 points. If you look at the elections (seven) where we weren’t between conventions at the moment, that difference comes down to six points.
Trump would need an average-to-above-average error to win the national vote. He would also need that mistake to go his way and not really benefit Biden. That is unlikely to happen.
Still, you can take some hope from Truman in 1948, who at the time had fallen almost the same in national polls. Truman would win by five points.
4. Biden’s advantage at the polling station is clear
If he averaged the polls in each state, Biden leads in states that contain 352 electoral votes to Trump’s 186. In addition, it is within a point in Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Texas (38 electoral votes).
It is quite conceivable that Biden would win more than 400 electoral votes, if the elections were held today.
Perhaps most importantly, there is little sign that the polling station will condemn him as he condemned Hillary Clinton in 2016. His average leadership in key states like Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin closely resembles his national advantage.
5. This choice is nothing like 2016
Biden is 52% versus Trump’s 40% in national live interviews conducted in July. In other words, he has more than 50%, unlike Clinton, and he has basically doubled the leadership that Clinton had after his convention.
Simply put, you would rather be Biden than Trump. But with some time to go, there is still time for Trump’s return.
.
