The United States now has so few deaths from COVID-19 that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday that it is approaching the threshold to drop below the level of an epidemic.
The CDC defines an epidemic as an outbreak of which the number of deaths per week exceeds a given percentage of total deaths within the nation. The number of COVID-19 deaths has steadily decreased since it peaked in early May after it began to increase in the second week of March.
The threshold mortality rate for COVID-19 and other illnesses like the flu and pneumonia fluctuates, generally ranging from 5 to 7 percent at the height of the flu season. The CDC said that during the last week of June, Wuhan’s flu death rate had equaled the epidemic threshold of 5.9 percent, reaching its lowest point since late last year.
The agency warned that this is likely to change as more death certificates are processed in the past few weeks, but it could mean hopeful news for the coming weeks. The total number of deaths from COVID-19 has been declining for 10 consecutive weeks, concluding with week 26 that ended on June 27. This suggests that the United States may be on the brink of not being considered an epidemic.
“According to death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a percentage decreasing deaths due to PIC, “according to the CDC website.
Fear of a second impending wave of cases and subsequent deaths due to COVID-19 has sparked caution in reopening businesses. However, in parts of the country that have reopened, death rates have not skyrocketed.
Despite the United States achieving its largest single-day increase in new cases of COVID-19 in recent weeks, the death rate remains stagnant, relatively unaffected by increased diagnoses. Cases have increased during week 26 in most regions nationwide, but are still lower than the peaks in March and April.
While lawmakers tinker with the idea of a second shutdown, the CDC reports a lower death rate, even as COVID-19 cases have recently increased.
Allison Schuster is an intern at The Federalist and is also a senior at Hillsdale College working for a degree in politics and journalism. Follow her on Twitter @AllisonShoeStor.
