10 releases with JP Crawford

JP Crawford had the highest aggregate probability of winning yesterday in the Mariners. If WPA measured defensive plays, it may not be, as he had a deflected shot that started Justin Dunn’s fourth inning pretty badly, but the M leader made up for it with a pair of other good gloves and plenty of excellence. on the plate. 2-for-3 with a couple of walks looks pretty good, but by far his most notable plate appearance was his late left-hander Ryan Buchter in the top of the eighth.

Buchter had just walked with Shed Long Jr. after relieving Ty Buttrey, who managed to give Dee Gordon a free pass. The crossfire lefty has allowed only a .261 wOBA against lefties in his career, or a .188 / .264 / .336 cut line. Start Crawford with a high fastball for strike one.

Like many left-handed relievers, Buchter’s bread and butter is a ball combo that breaks the fastball and is especially difficult for lefties. He has had a successful career despite a high walking rate thanks to his ability to sneak away, maybe a lot of luck and some good defenses, but his next release is a nasty curveball. JP cuts it bad, but now it’s 0-2.

In the driver’s seat, Buchter returns to the well. Crawford messes it up again, leaving an almost perfect curve offside.

Buchter responds with a 17 mph jump in almost the same spot, splashing a fastball alone below the zone, but close enough to take a strike three in many circumstances. Instead, Angels catcher Jason Castro sniffs the ball almost entirely, and any framing-based mischief dissipates when the runners move 90 feet.

Now at 1-2, back to the curve that Buchter is going. It is a flatter version that ends further from the plate, it is too obvious a tone to attract Crawford. The launch begins in the zone and collapses, but Crawford’s patience is enough to maintain his swing. The count is equal.

Buchter reverses the touch again, hitting his target with a raised fastball on the outside of the plate. It’s not a great pitch, but it’s changing the eye level once again for Crawford. Instead, another foul ball.

With Crawford spraying all to the left side in this PA, Castro and Buchter call for the same pitch, trying to push the shortstop off the back with Buchter’s best heat so far at just over 93 mph. Instead, another ball is missing as the plate’s appearance is heading for its eighth pitch.

This is, for me, the crucial tone. A take on a power curve, which he has seen as a broader shot up to this point, that plummets out of the zone and puts the count at 3-2. Crawford has always been praised for his good discipline at the plate, as he has run a Chase% (swing out of range shots) of just 18.1% for his career which is well below the MLB average of 28.3%, and His 21.2% Whiff% is also better than the league average (24.4%). But Crawford has to do more than spit on bad things, he has to harm good things. He has already fouled a few fastballs in the middle of the plate, and gets another heater on the AB’s number nine field.

The chyron rounds to 94, but Baseball Savant puts it at 93.5 mph. It’s Buchter’s best fastball of the night, and while he loses his place outside, even with a poor frame, it could easily be a strike three if Crawford doesn’t get the bat. Instead, we turn to the final offer.

Booyah Like a swallow desperately pretending to avoid a diving hawk, Buchter launches his first battle cutter, without success. The 89mph pitch is tracked and traversed by Crawford 105mph from the bat, leaping onto the grass in the outfield, easily scoring Gordon and Long, and leaving room for breath between the Ms and the Angels as they head to the ninth. The full frame at bat is a beautiful thing.

Baseball Savant

Crawford has been terrific at the plate in the first week of the season, but he had hot stretches last year and fell off when tired. While I mentioned Crawford’s commendable plate discipline earlier, that trait only goes so far for hitters that they can’t punish adaptive pitchers. If a boy does not leave the area, pitchers will bring their best things to the plate. That is not a guarantee of success.

Hitters like Mallex Smith and Leury Garcia, for example, tend to see high shooting percentages in the area, since pitchers aren’t afraid to give up powerful contact with them. Sure, Mallex could hit a ball in the gap or corner and get a double or triple, but that’s a much better lower risk than walking it and letting him use his elite speed to get to second or third place anyway. Last year, Crawford was in the bottom 6% of the league in the hit rate, at just 24.8%, with a bottom. 4% Average muzzle velocity of just 85 mph from his bat. As a good defensive shortstop with solid speed, Crawford doesn’t have to become Nelson Cruz to be a solid player every day, but he must be able to do enough damage on the ball for pitchers to respect him. Plate appearances like the one from the night before show a glimpse of what that 25-year-old version of the SS would look like, and folks, it’s a show I’d like to see much more of.