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Now we have confirmation, if necessary, that the UK decision to ban Huawei Its 5G network emerged as a direct result of pressure from U.S. President Trump and his security team. There was also the non-trivial problem of a change of course in the tips from ghosts of Great Britain for its politicians: the risks with the Huawei team could no longer be mitigated. This, again, was directly attributable to the United States’ campaign against the Chinese tech giant. On the surface, this may seem like a victory for Washington, but it is not so simple: Huawei is far from being defeated.
The clear implication in the UK is that Huawei’s decision has to do with politics and has little to do with security. The UK cyber team tasked with defending the kingdom from threats associated with the Chinese team has only changed its mind because, at the insistence of the United States, U.S. components within Huawei’s team are being replaced by (probably) Chinese equivalents. A shift in the political winds – there is an American election just a few months away – and both lobbying and supply chain restrictions could easily disappear.
This context behind the UK’s “materially” modified security report, that the change was made by the United States, is critical. In the absence of the latest sanctions, the UK council would not have changed and the reason driving the UK reversal would not exist. Confirmation from leading chip provider TSMC, which will stop supplying Huawei in September under the new US rules., was also steeped in the implication that those rules would be relaxed or changed, or if the company successfully applied for a license to supply, then we would quickly return to normal.
Even the structure of the recently announced UK reversal is all about the details. The decision to ban purchases of 5G equipment starting next January leaves a sizable acquisition window wide open, and is designed to restrict acquisition of the standalone 5G kit rather than LTE to 5G upgrades. The long grace period (until 2027) before removal and replacement is mandatory, and silence on existing 3G and 4G equipment already in place has left many options on the table. If a week is a long time in politics, seven years is a lifetime.
Trump was quick to take credit for the UK decision, customizing victoryAnd it is true that the President has campaigned long and hard to persuade his key defense and intelligence ally to follow the line of the United States. But Washington’s relationship with Beijing is very different from London’s. The United States can ignore China’s economic threats, neither can live without the other. A UK facing the harsh realities of a post-COVID Brexit is not in such a fortunate position. China issued new threats of “retaliation“Following Huawei’s decision. And that has a certain weight in a country that depends on Chinese investments in infrastructure and technology, and with a huge base of Huawei equipment installation.
Huawei’s UK public relations chief Ed Brewster noted during a BBC Newsnight interview last week that the company’s UK mission continues. R&D investments and decision, announced after 5G rollback, to open new flagship stores It should tell you everything you need to know about Huawei’s position in its future in the UK. “We know that millions of people here in the UK love our products,” the company said in announcing the investment of £ 10 million ($ 12.5 million). Hawkish American politicians come and go, this Chinese giant is playing a much longer game.
The group of UK politicians who lobbied their government for tougher sanctions against Huawei know that there is a risk of more change as this story stretches to the November US election and the consequences we see of the investigations into the origins. of the coronavirus and the alleged disinformation of Beijing. There’s also a much broader tech showdown, one that has now dragged the TikTok into the mix.
The United States is fast approaching a decision point on how far it wants to go, before the implications for its own technology sector become much more difficult to sell at home. The headlines may be filled these days with news of new investments in India, but China is China, and it will not be easily displaced as the world’s center of technology manufacturing and the world’s most popular consumer market.
Going back from this seminal week in the battle between the US and Huawei, it’s hard not to think that the UK has left the door ajar for new twists and turns. The decision is based solely on lobbying and sanctions by the United States, and the United Kingdom does not want to keep the check if the United States changes its tone.
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