By 2100, 183 out of 195 countries will have no fertility rates required to maintain the current population, with 2.1 projected births per woman, researchers at the Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment at the University of Washington School of Medicine said.
However, the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple, allowing less than half of the world’s population to be African by the end of the century.
The modeling study, published Tuesday in The Lancet, also predicts a dramatic decline in working-age populations in countries like India and China, which will hurt economic growth and could have negative implications for the workforce and support systems. social, the researchers said.
But as fertility declines, the researchers note that immigration could offset the decline in population, particularly in countries with low fertility, such as the United States, Australia, and Canada.
“The world, since the 1960s, has really focused on the so-called population explosion,” Dr. Christopher Murray, who led the research, told CNN. “Suddenly, we are now seeing this kind of turning point where it is very clear that we are rapidly moving from too many people to too few problems.”
Population reduction
Using data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study, the researchers predicted that the least declining populations will be found in Asia and eastern and central Europe.
The authors of the report project that Japan’s population will decrease from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, Thailand will see a reduction from 71 to 35 million, Spain from 46 to 23 million, Italy from 61 to 31 million, Portugal from 11 to 5 million, and South Korea from 53 to 27 million.
Murray said that not only will the population shrink, but society in general will be older, which would have a substantial impact on economic growth.
“There are more people who need to receive government benefits, be it social security or health insurance, and there are fewer people to pay taxes,” he explained.
The researchers project that the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple over the course of the century, from approximately 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.
North Africa and the Middle East is the only other region that is projected to have a larger population in 2,100 than in 2017, with a forecast of 978 million compared to 600 million.
“Because fertility will remain high longer, the relative proportion of the world’s population that is African will increase dramatically. We will get to the point by the end of the century, where just under half of the world’s population will be African on these trajectories.” Murray told CNN.
Those over 80 will outnumber those under five
The study also predicts major changes in the global age structure as fertility declines and life expectancy increases, with an estimated 2.37 billion people over the age of 65 worldwide by 2100, compared to 1.7 billion under 20 years old.
The global number of people over the age of 80 could be multiplied by six, from 141 million to 866 million. Meanwhile, the number of children under the age of five is forecast to decrease by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100.
The researchers said that these “dramatic declines” in working-age populations in countries like India and China will hamper economic growth and lead to changes in world powers.
“It is already starting, this is something that is not in the distant future. The number of working-age adults in China has already started to decrease,” Murray told CNN.
“The profound decline in working-age adults that will happen in a place like China means that in the long term they will not be able to maintain economic growth at the rate they are,” Murray told CNN.
The authors of the report say the new forecasts highlight the “huge challenges” that a shrinking workforce will pose to economic growth and the high burden that an aging population will pose to health and social support mechanisms.
The role of immigration.
The authors suggest that population decline could be offset by immigration, and that countries with liberal immigration policies will be better able to maintain population size and support economic growth, even when fertility declines.
“If more people die and then are born, the population will go into decline. And the only way to counter that is with migration,” Murray said.
Researchers suggest population decline could be offset by immigration, predicting that countries with low fertility, including the US, Australia, and Canada, will keep working-age populations with immigration as fertility declines .
While the report’s authors point out that fewer people would have “positive implications for the environment, climate change and food production,” an aging population may present its challenges.
If it were just the number of people and not all of these other effects, you could argue that for the planet it could be a good thing, “Murray said.
“The problem is that the inverted age pyramid is a real problem of how societies are organized and how economies work, how taxes are paid,” he said. “What we really need to discover is how to transition from the state we are in now,” he said.
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